We have a rather unique weekend upon us with an impressive number of new wide releases, specifically zero. Nothing, nil, nix, nada, null, naught, zilch. Now that I have that out of my system I can tell you we have six very limited releases scheduled for today according to Box Office Mojo and out of those the NC-17 Shame is probably the most noteworthy. That leaves The Muppets and Breaking Dawn – Part 1 fighting for the top spot.
I’ll start with The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 and I shall use New Moon to estimate how much it will gross this weekend. Since that movie dropped 64% in its 3rd weekend, Breaking Dawn – Part 1 should be at around $15 million, probably enough to finish on top for a 3rd consecutive time. The Muppets on the other hand, if compared to Enchanted (same Thanksgiving release, similar target audience, critical reception, Disney behind it) and based on weekdays so far, I’d say is headed for a 52% drop. That means $14.1 million but I won’t be surprised if it can pull a bit more, unfortunately not enough to upset Breaking Dawn – Part 1.
3rd place is going to be a toss-up between The Descendants and Hugo with both movies headed for $7 million. My best bet is The Descendants takes this one while Hugo will have to sit in line a little while longer. Maybe Christmas can change that, we’ll see. The Descendants looks like Up in the Air (2009) all over again for George Clooney and that film finished with $83.8 million in North America, very good.
Finally 5th place is probably going to Arthur Christmas with a decent 45% drop (most movies after Thanksgiving average 50%) that should mean $6.6 million. I’m not ruling out Happy Feet Two just yet since it could surprise and drop under 50%, enough to turn the tide.
Next week Jonah Hill is the last person you’d want to take care of your kids in The Sitter and Warner Bros. has a huge ensemble cast in New Year’s Eve, kind of a sequel but not really to the 2010 hit Valentine’s Day.