With a new Spider-Man, Justice League and Star Wars: The Last Jedi all opening in the second half of 2017, you know we’re in for some very impressive box office numbers.
If you haven’t already go read part one, where I go over the first half of 2017. And if you want to skip straight to the good stuff, my predictions for 2017’s top 10 in the US and worldwide, you can find both at the bottom. With all of that out of the way let’s go straight into July, which brings Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets.
Spider-Man: Homecoming (July 7th), the first standalone Spider-Man film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, should open around $125-130 million. While that would be lower than Spider-Man 3‘s $151,1 million 2007 debut, I believe Homecoming could have much better staying power and finish its theatrical run with $300-400 million in the US. If things work out that way Spider-Man: Homecoming might be looking at $900 million to $1 billion worldwide.
War for the Planet of the Apes (July 14th) follows Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which made $710.6 million worldwide in 2014. That’s the target for War and as long as the film delivers, as long as it’s as good as Dawn, $700 million worldwide is achievable. Of that about $200-250 million will probably come from the US and its opening weekend might hover around $70 million. I know I could be underestimating this one and I hope that ends up being the case.
Dunkirk (July 21st) is Christopher Nolan’s next film, a World War II drama about the battle of Dunkirk. No superheroes, magicians, dreams within dreams or interstellar travels in this film, so is Nolan’s name enough to turn Dunkirk into a box office hit? Yes it is, his name alone is more than enough to make Dunkirk one of the summer’s most anticipated movies. Right now I’m thinking $60-70 million opening weekend and probably $200-250 million in the US and $700 million worldwide. That would be more or less in line with Interstellar‘s box office ($188 million domestically, $675.1 million worldwide).
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (July 21st) is very much a wild card. Luc Besson’s passion project, the movie he always wanted to make but never could until now. Realistically Valerian probably has a better shot at becoming one of 2017’s biggest box office bomb, but there’s also a part of me that wishes for a completely different outcome. In 1997 Besson’s The Fifth Element made $63.8 million in the US ($120.3 million adjusted for ticket price inflation) and $263.9 million worldwide. Valerian carries a $180 million budget, meaning those numbers would not be enough. Even so I doubt Valerian can do better than a $25 million opening weekend, $65 million domestically and $300 million worldwide.
Now we skip August and September and go straight to October 6th, a date Blade Runner 2049 and Kingsman: The Golden Circle share. With Arrival‘s Denis Villeneuve at the helm I know Blade Runner 2049 will be great, but how big can a Blade Runner movie really be at the box office? Adjusted for ticket price inflation the original Blade Runner would have $81.1 million in 2017, which doesn’t sound like a lot. Maybe it’s my bias, maybe it’s not, but I think Blade Runner 2049 will make much more than that, $50 million opening weekend, $200-220 million in the US and $500-600 million worldwide.
I don’t have a lot to go on with Kingsman: The Golden Circle (October 6th) as we’ve yet to see anything from it. Good news is Matthew Vaughn is back, which I believe makes The Golden Circle his first sequel. As long as it can match the first film’s success, $128.3 million domestically (after a $36.2 million start) and $414.4 million worldwide, then it’s all good. So let’s say $40 million opening weekend for Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $120 million in the US and $400 million worldwide. Of course secretly I want this to be a lot more popular, and maybe it will be.
November starts with Thor: Ragnarok (November 3rd), which will see Thor and Hulk team up for a space adventure that will lead straight into Avengers: Infinity War. There’s a lot to be excited for here and that’s why I think Thor: Ragnarok will be Thor’s most successful standalone film to date. That means it needs to beat Thor: The Dark World ($206.4 million in the US, $644.6 million worldwide) and that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I’m thinking Guardians of the Galaxy numbers, so Ragnarok opens with $105 million and stops around $250-350 million domestically (Justice League will absolutely hurt it, might be a lot closer to $250 million than $350 million).. Meanwhile the worldwide total could be $700-800 million.
Assuming Wonder Woman is great and everyone forgets about Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, then Justice League (November 17th) should be a new high for the DC Extended Universe. Yes, I should know better by now but I just can’t help it. Justice League opens with $160 million and ultimately raises $350-400 million in the US and $900 million to $1 billion worldwide. Yep, in my head that sounds right.
Coco (November 22nd) is another Pixar animation that I’m sure Disney hopes can be more Brave ($540.4 million ww) at the box office than The Good Dinosaur ($332.2 million ww). It could also be really good and one of the year’s top grossing films. And really I’m just throwing numbers at the wall and seeing what sticks (not as much as you’d think). Opening weekend: $50 million, US total: $200 million, worldwide: $500-600 million.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (December 15th) will be 2017’s most successful movie and I don’t think anyone can argue that. So how big are we talking? Not quite The Force Awakens big, that one was a freak occurrence with $936.7 million domestically and $2.068 billion worldwide. No, The Last Jedi will probably have the 2nd biggest opening weekend of all time, $220-240 million (The Force Awakens pulled $248 million), $700-800 million in the US and $1.7-1.9 billion worldwide. That’s still a lot of money, enough to get Star Wars: The Last Jedi up to 4th place on the all-time worldwide chart. Also more than enough to easily top 2017.
On December 22nd Sony and Universal play the counterprogramming card with Jumanji and Pitch Perfect 3. Those two will probably be the top picks for people that might not be interested in The Last Jedi, or already saw it the week before. Jumanji has a great cast and a very recognizable name, maybe enough for a $30-40 million start, $120-140 million in the US and over $300 million worldwide. Pitch Perfect 3 on the other hand follows the very successful Pitch Perfect 2, which broke out domestically in 2015 with $184.3 million, almost three times more than its predecessor. Part 3 will probably have a lower opening weekend then Pitch 2 ($69.2 million), say $40 million, but thanks to the holidays it could eventually gross just as much in the US, $160-200 million. Since Pitch Perfect is not as popular internationally, $300-350 million worldwide sounds reasonable for Pitch Perfect 3.
Almost finished now, just two more things to go over. First, the US top 10 for the year, and imediately after the worldwide one. So without further ado here’s how I think 2017’s top 10 will look like at the box office, in the US.
10. Logan – $200 million to $300 million
9. Thor: Ragnarok – $250 million to $350 million
8. The Fate of the Furious – $270 million to $300 million
7. Wonder Woman – $300 million
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $300 million to $400 million
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – $300 million to $400 million
4. Despicable Me 3 – $340 million to $380 million
3. Justice League – $350 million to $400 million
2. Beauty and the Beast – $350 million to $450 million
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $700 million to $800 million
And last but definitely not least, here’s the worldwide top 10 for 2017.
10. Thor: Ragnarok – $700 million to $800 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales – $800 million
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – $800 million to $1 billion
7. Transformers: The Last Knight – $900 million
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming – $900 million to $1 billion
5. Justice League – $900 million to $1 billion
4. Beauty and the Beast – $1 billion
3. Despicable Me 3 – $1.1 billion
2. The Fate of the Furious – $1.15 billion
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion
That about wraps everything up and now we wait and see just how bad my predictions end up being. What do you think, will The Last Jedi really be 2017’s top release both in the US and worldwide?