With the big show only a few days away, I’ve compiled a list of predictions to give you an edge in the bets against your friends. Of course, these are just my best guesses, so don’t come looking to me for reimbursement if you lose twenty bucks.

Best Picture

The Artist is undoubtedly the frontrunner this year, having won almost every Best Picture award it has been nominated for. There isn’t much else to say about this category. Hugo has the tiniest fraction of a snowball’s chance in Hell because Martin Scorsese is so well-respected and it is the film with the most nominations. The only other film that is worth putting on the ballot, in terms of probability, is The Descendants, which won the Best Drama at the Golden Globes.

Best Bet: The Artist
An Oh-So Distant Second: Hugo
If Something Crazy Happens: The Descendants
My Personal Pick: The Help

Best Director

In keeping with this year’s theme, the directing race is another battle between The Artist, the brain-child of Michel Hazanavicius, and Hugo, helmed by Martin Scorsese. The advantage clearly goes to Hazanavicius, however, simply due to the overwhelming historical correlation between Best Picture and Best Director winners. If The Artist is the Best Picture heavyweight, Hazanavicius is, by default, the directing favorite.

Best Bet: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Possible Surprise Upset: Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
If Something Crazy Happens: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)

Best Actor

This one is going to come down to the wire. Both George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist) have won a number of awards this year. Each of them went home with a Golden Globe, Dujardin nabbed the SAG and BAFTA awards, and Clooney snatched The National Board of Review and Critic’s Choice awards. Dujardin’s wins are more recent, which, together with the overall awards power of The Artist, gives him a slight edge. Still, I won’t be surprised if Clooney walks away with his second acting Oscar on Sunday night.

Best Bet: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Close Second: George Clooney (The Descendants)
If the Votes Split and a Surprise 3^rd Grabs the Gold: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Best Actress

Like the Best Actor category, Best Actress has turned into a two-horse race that is hard to predict. In one corner we have the most esteemed living actress, Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), who has an astonishing 17 Oscar nominations in total. In the other corner we have Viola Davis who received her second nomination in three years for The Help. Fun fact: Davis’s first nod came for her work in Doubt, in which she only had one scene, which she shared with none other than Meryl Streep, who was also nominated that year. Early on, Davis looked like the one to beat, but it seems as though voters suddenly recalled that, while Streep receives a staggering number of nominations, she hasn’t won an Oscar in almost thirty years—not since she won for Sophie’s Choice way back in 1983. The factor that tips the odds towards Davis is The Help’s box office and critical success, compared to the flop that is The Iron Lady.

Best Bet: Viola Davis (The Help)
Close Second: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer (Beginners) had better be practicing his acceptance speech. Like Christoph Walz (Inglorious Basterds), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), and Christian Bale (The Fighter) before him, Plummer is as close as you can get to a lock.

Best Bet: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Mind-Blowing Surprise: Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Best Supporting Actress

Like the Supporting Actor category, this one is all but sewn up. Octavia Spencer (The Help) has cleaned up the awards season this year. The Academy Award will almost certainly be another trophy she has to make room for.

Best Bet: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Shocking Spoiler: Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

Best Documentary Feature

This category is often difficult to predict, as documentaries are rarely as popular or as circulated as features. Without the presence of a Bowling for Columbine or The March of Penguins, it’s hard to confidently pick out a frontrunner. With that in mind, I’m leaning toward Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, which documents the West Memphis Three, a trio of teenagers convicted of the murders of three young boys in West Memphis, Arkansas, and who were recently released due to new forensic evidence that indicates they may be innocent. Paradise Lost 3 is, as the title suggests, the third in a trilogy which has been documenting the investigation, trials, and media surrounding the West Memphis Three for over a decade. Because of the role these movies have played in the high profile case, and the number of celebrities and musicians who have publicly supported the West Memphis Three, it seems reasonable that Paradise Lost 3 could take home the statuette. That being said, any of the five nominees has a reasonable chance, as many critics have noted.

Best Bet: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Another Safe Bet: Undefeated

Best Animated Feature

Without The Adventures of Tintin or a Pixar candidate, this category is suddenly much more open-ended. Either of the two European nominees, A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita, could shake things up, but the Johnny Depp-voiced Rango is the likeliest winner in such a lackluster group.

Best Bet: Rango
Surprise Upset: Chico & Rita
If All the Academy Voters are Secretly Cat Lovers: Puss in Boots or A Cat in Paris.

Best Foreign Language Film

Iran’s A Separation has consistently taken home this award all season long. However, this category has a history of seeing the favorite fall to an underdog. If that were to happen, Poland’s In Darkness is most likely to be the film that revels in Oscar glory.

Best Bet: A Separation
Underdog: In Darkness
Because I’m Canadian I’m Cheering For: Monsieur Lazhar

Best Visual Effects

There wasn’t an Inception or Avatar that took visual effects to a shocking new level this year, but there was Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which made audiences forget that the titular apes were not, in fact, real. Transformers: Dark of the Moon is making a last-minute bid for the visual effects prize by releasing some behind-the-scenes videos online. You can see those here. Of course, it would be silly to count out the beloved Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, if for no other reason than the franchise hasn’t managed to garner a single Oscar win, despite several nominations, and this year is its last chance.

Best Bet: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Possible Monkey-Killer: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
But Don’t Count Out: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Cinematography

There are several very strong nominees in this category. Steven Spielberg has received much critical acclaim for the aesthetic and cinematographic aspects of War Horse; and while half of audiences wanted their money back after viewing The Tree of Life, the other half has been shouting Malick’s praises ever since, demanding Oscar recognition in this category; finally, the two heaviest hitters of this year’s awards, Hugo and The Artist, have each been consistent nominees cinematography nominees all season long, with The Artist picking up a BAFTA a couple weeks ago. This is definitely one of the hardest categories to call, as there seems to be very little consensus among critics as to who will win. My guess is that Hugo’s technologically advanced yet conventional style will appeal to Academy voters, but with The Tree of Life taking home top honors from the American Society of Cinematographers, it’s far from a sure thing.

Best Bet: Hugo
Strong Contender: The Tree of Life
Possible Spoiler: The Artist

Best Adapted Screenplay

My personal wish is that The Ides of March, written by George Clooney, Beau Willimon & Grant Heslove, would finally get some love and win the only category it managed to get a nomination in, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Instead, George Clooney’s other big film, The Descendants, written by Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash, is the one to place money on. It has five nominations, but almost zero chance at winning anything except this category, which gives it that much more clout. It has some serious competition, however, from Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian & Stan Chervin, the writers of Moneyball.

Best Bet: Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Strong Contender: Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian & Stan Chervin (Moneyball)
Possible Surprise Upset: Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Best Original Screenplay

This is yet another category too close to call with any real certainty. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) is the marginal favorite, but Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) could very well swoop in and steal this one away from him. I’m also not completely writing off Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo (Bridesmaids), and am not-so-secretly crossing my fingers for them to surprise everyone with a win.

Best Bet: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Strong Contender: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Possible Surprise Upset: Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo (Bridesmaids)

Best Original Score

Part of me thinks that voters will make up for snubbing The Adventures of Tintin from the Animated Feature category by rewarding John Williams’ score with a statuette, but that’s not likely to be the case. Rather, I’d look at Ludovic Bource’s work in The Artist. Since The Artist is a silent film, it relied much more heavily on the score than its competitors, which gives Bource a distinct advantage. Critics are split over who the potential spoiler could be, but I have a hunch that Howard Shore (Hugo) may walk away with his fourth Oscar.

Best Bet: Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
Potential Spoiler: Howard Shore (Hugo)
Out-of-left-field Upset: Alberto Iglesias (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Best Original Song

There is very little to say about a category that only has two nominees, other than complaining about the fact that there should have been more songs to choose from. Deservedly, “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets by Bret McKenzie has almost certainly got this one in the bag.

Best Bet: “Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)
The Only Other Nominee: “Real in Rio” (Rio)

Best Makeup

With only three nominees, the makeup battle seems to have filtered itself down to fight between The Iron Lady, which did a freaky job of making Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, which is looking to get some recognition for all those years of making Ralph Fiennes’ nose disappear. The uncanny man-makeup on Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs doesn’t seem to be in contention.

Best Bet: The Iron Lady
Possible Upset: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Art Direction

If any category offers HP 7.5 a reasonable chance at its long-absent Oscar victory, it’s this one. This is the franchise’s fourth nomination in the Art Direction category, and with its extremely large fan base already pissed that the final film was snubbed from the Best Picture race, if Harry Potter goes eight movies without a single Oscar win, Potterphiles may lose their collective mind. Even still, it’d be a big stretch to call it the frontrunner, especially when it is up against four Best Picture nominees, including Hugo and The Artist.

Best Bet: Hugo
Strong Contender: The Artist
An Offering to Appease the Masses: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Costumes

Hello, period pieces. This is the category where the past reigns, and 2012 is no different. All five nominees are period pieces. The two films fighting it out this year for the top spot are Jane Eyre and The Artist, both which impeccably replicated their respective eras.

Best Bet: Jane Eyre
Strong Contender: The Artist

Best Film Editing

When it comes to some of these technical categories that are paid less attention to, it is often safest to go with the most technically spectacular of the big hitters, which in this case is Hugo. However, this year The Artist throws a curveball in the Film Editing department. For, while it doesn’t have to deal with the incredible CGI that Hugo does or the baseball scenes in Moneyball, it beautifully replicates the style of the 1920’s silent films. This makes it not just a technical skill, but also an art.

Best Bet: The Artist
Don’t Count Out: Hugo

Best Sound Mixing

Keeping in mind the statement above, Hugo appears to be the frontrunner for Sound Mixing and Editing, as it combines the technical proficiency of a box office blockbuster with the critical acclaim of a Best Picture nominee. That being said, you can’t ignore the complicated monstrosity of Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Whether or not you liked the story or the acting, you cannot deny the massive complexity of the sound design.

Best Bet: Hugo
Strong Contender: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Keep an Eye On: War Horse

Best Sound Editing

Best Bet: Hugo
Strong Contender: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Might Surprise Everyone: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Short Documentary

Saving Face, which follows a cosmetic surgeon who repairs the faces of Pakistani women disfigured by acid, is the likely winner here. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, also has a good shot at taking home the trophy.

Best Bet: Saving Face
Strong Contender: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Surprise Upset: God is Bigger Than Elvis

Best Animated Short

In a year fuelled by the nostalgia of The Artist, a silent short that pays homage to Buster Keaton seems like a surefire win. Such is the force behind The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. Of course, the power of Pixar should not be scoffed at, which makes La Luna a viable candidate for the award.

Best Bet: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Strong Contender: La Luna

Best Live Short

There is very little agreement on the frontrunner in this category. The Shore has popped up on a number of critics’ lists and is the flashiest of the five shorts. But Tuba Atlantic has a guy trying to blow of seagulls, so…

Best Bet: The Shore
Possible Spoiler: Raju
Has My Vote: Tuba Atlantic

And that does it. Sound off in the comments below with your own predictions.

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Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak and Academy member and Oscar-nominated actress Jennifer Lawrence announced the nominations earlier today. Martin Scorsese’s Hugo lead the pack with 11 nominations, with Michel Hazanavicius’ The Artist picking up 10.

Here’s list in full:

Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”
George Clooney in “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”

Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis in “The Help”
Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”

Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer in “The Help”

Animated Feature Film
“A Cat in Paris” Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
“Chico & Rita” Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
“Kung Fu Panda 2″ Jennifer Yuh Nelson
“Puss in Boots” Chris Miller
“Rango” Gore Verbinski

Art Direction
“The Artist” Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Hugo” Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“Midnight in Paris” Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
“War Horse” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Cinematography
“The Artist” Guillaume Schiffman
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Jeff Cronenweth
“Hugo” Robert Richardson
“The Tree of Life” Emmanuel Lubezki
“War Horse” Janusz Kaminski

Costume Design
“Anonymous” Lisy Christl
“The Artist” Mark Bridges
“Hugo” Sandy Powell
“Jane Eyre” Michael O’Connor
“W.E.” Arianne Phillips

Directing
“The Artist” Michel Hazanavicius
“The Descendants” Alexander Payne
“Hugo” Martin Scorsese
“Midnight in Paris” Woody Allen
“The Tree of Life” Terrence Malick

Documentary (Feature)
“Hell and Back Again” Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Pina” Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
“Undefeated” TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Documentary (Short Subject)
“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement” Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
“God Is the Bigger Elvis” Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
“Incident in New Baghdad”James Spione
“Saving Face” Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Film Editing
“The Artist” Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
“The Descendants” Kevin Tent
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
“Hugo” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Moneyball” Christopher Tellefsen

Foreign Language Film
“Bullhead” Belgium
“Footnote” Israel
“In Darkness” Poland
“Monsieur Lazhar” Canada
“A Separation” Iran

Makeup
“Albert Nobbs” Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Iron Lady” Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Music (Original Score)
“The Adventures of Tintin” John Williams
“The Artist” Ludovic Bource
“Hugo” Howard Shore
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Alberto Iglesias
“War Horse” John Williams

Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from “Rio” Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Best Picture
“The Artist” Thomas Langmann, Producer
“The Descendants” Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” Scott Rudin, Producer
“The Help” Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
“Hugo” Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
“Midnight in Paris” Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
“Moneyball” Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
“The Tree of Life” Nominees to be determined
“War Horse” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

Short Film (Animated)
“Dimanche/Sunday” Patrick Doyon
“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
“La Luna” Enrico Casarosa
“A Morning Stroll” Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
“Wild Life” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Short Film (Live Action)
“Pentecost” Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
“Raju” Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
“The Shore” Terry George and Oorlagh George
“Time Freak” Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
“Tuba Atlantic” Hallvar Witzø

Sound Editing
“Drive” Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Ren Klyce
“Hugo” Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
“War Horse” Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

Sound Mixing
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
“Hugo” Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
“Moneyball” Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
“War Horse” Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

Visual Effects
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
“Hugo” Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
“Real Steel” Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“The Descendants” Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
“Hugo” Screenplay by John Logan
“The Ides of March” Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
“Moneyball” Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

Writing (Original Screenplay)
“The Artist” Written by Michel Hazanavicius
“Bridesmaids” Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
“Margin Call” Written by J.C. Chandor
“Midnight in Paris” Written by Woody Allen
“A Separation” Written by Asghar Farhadi

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The New York Film Critics Online, the Boston Society of Film Critics, and the L.A. Film Critics all released their annual awards on Sunday. The American Film Institute also released its top ten movies and television shows of the year.

Michel Hazanavicius’ tribute to the silent movie era, The Artist, was one of the biggest winners, receiving Best Picture honors from both the NYFCO and the BSFC. It was also given a special award from the AFI (for movies which do not fit into the AFI’s normal criteria). Hazanavicius also won Best Director from the NYFCO.

The Descendants won the Best Picture prize from the LAFC.

The NYFCO, BSFC, and LAFC all awarded different winners in both the Best Actor (Michael Shannon for Take Shelter, Brad Pitt for Moneyball, and Michael Fassbender for his whole year’s body of work, including Shame and A Dangerous Method, respectively) and Best Actress categories (Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn, and Yun Jung-hee for Poetry, respectively).

Albert Brooks (Drive) nabbed the Best Supporting Actor awards from both the NYFCO and the BSFC. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) received it from the LAFC.

One of the most interesting winners from yesterday was Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), who was honored by the NYFCO and the BSFC in the Supporting Actress category. Strictly comedic performances are often overlooked during the awards season, but if Robert Downey Jr. can get an Oscar nomination for Tropic Thunder, then maybe McCarthy can grab one too.

There doesn’t seem to be a clear front runner in any category, but The Artist, War Horse, The Descendants, Tree of Life, and Hugo (among several others) are all looking good to garner some Best Picture nominations during the big awards in the New Year.

You can view the complete list for the New York Film Critics Online awards here; the Boston Society Film Critics’ awards here; the L.A. Film Critics’ awards here; and the AFI awards here.

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Amazon has now made Moneyball available to pre-order via these links: DVD | Blu-ray

Sony has set the Moneyball DVD and Blu-ray release date for January 10, 2012. The movie, starring Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Robin Wright, was released back in September and follows the story of Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s successful attempt to put together a baseball club on a budget by employing computer-generated analysis to draft his players.

Moneyball was directed by Bennett Miller and has made $71 million worldwide so far (it will be rolling out in the UK and other territories between now and February). The movie has an impressive 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, so an awards campaign and Best Actor push for Pitt may be on the horizon.

Blu-ray.com has the special features:

Four behind-the-scenes featurettes:
- Billy Beane: Re-Inventing the Game
- Drafting The Team
- Moneyball: Playing The Game
- Adapting Moneyball
Blooper: “Brad Loses It”

Amazon has now made Moneyball available to pre-order via these links: DVD | Blu-ray

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Puss in Boots purred his way to the top of the box office while also scoring the biggest Halloween weekend ever. While not a particularly amazing performance, it almost tripled Justin Timberlake’s In Time and I’m not even going to mention The Rum Diary.

Diablo Gato, The Furry Lover, Chupacabra, Frisky Two Times, The Gingerhead Man or simply Puss in Boots, opened with $34 million. For DreamWorks Animation, that’s on the low end. Even the 2001 original Shrek (that didn’t feature Puss) opened higher at $42.3 million without 3D. But, as is the case with most spin-offs, Puss in Boots was never expected to open like a Shrek. On the bright side, $34 million was enough to beat Saw 2‘s $33.6 million Halloween record. Word of mouth seems to be strong so I’m expecting good holds and a final gross north of $120 million in North America.

In 2nd place was Paranormal Activity 3 with a respectable $18.1 million for an even more respectable $83.4 million in 11 days. Paranormal Activity 3 also had the steepest second weekend drop of the franchise so far but after such a huge opening weekend, it was to be expected. On the other hand, Paranormal Activity 2 was at only $67 million after 11 days so this latest entry should still finish above the $100 million mark.

New entry In Time is 3rd with $12 million and for the very busy Justin Timberlake, it was the worst wide opening weekend in over 4 years. For director Andrew Niccol, famous for making unique movies like the cult classic Gattaca, Simone, Lord of War and now this, it was his biggest opening ever. Because In Time is such a polarizing movie (much like Niccol’s previous efforts), I don’t expect much in the way of box office legs so $30 million is as high as I see this going.

Footloose had another good weekend with $5.5 million for a total of $38.9 million in 18 days. The same can’t be said for Johnny Deep’s The Rum Diary. Coming in at just $5.1 million, this is the worst wide opening for Johnny Deep since The Astronaut’s Wife way back in 1999 when movie tickets were a lot cheaper and M. Night Shyamalan was arguably as popular as Christopher Nolan is today. Adjusted for inflation, this is probably the worst wide opening weekend ever for Mr. Deep. Yes, even Nick of Time in 1995 probably sold more tickets than this.

Finally, in Moneyball and Dolphin Tale news, I was right on the money when saying this would be the weekend that will see the Brad Pitt film take a stand. With $67.7 million versus $67.2 million, Moneyball is back in the lead and it will probably stay there.

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I was way off last weekend when predicting this would open with $30 million and i’m not ashamed to recognize when I’m wrong. Not only did Paranormal Activity 3 open higher than the last entry in the series but it took the number one pure horror opening record and the best fall opening to date. Meanwhile, everything else bombed.

It’s very hard to find words to express just how incredible a $52.5 million opening for Paranormal Activity 3 is. The first movie in the series, as many know, became a sleeper hit in the fall of 2009. In 2010 Paranormal Activity 2 turned from sleeper to event movie with a $40.6 million opening. Now, Paranormal Activity 3 did what few expected and bested the previous film’s opening. As mentioned in the introduction, Paranormal Activity 3 is now the highest opening horror flick, beating brother Paranormal Activity 2 that held said spot for just one year. The fall opening record (at least what Hollywood considers as fall) was previously under Jackass 3D with $50.3 million a year ago. Paranormal Activity 3 should have no problem finishing ahead of Paranormal Activity 2‘s $84.7 million total and even attempt to out-gross the original’s $107.9 million.

In 2nd place former leader Real Steel makes $10.8 million for a respectable $67.3 million after 18 days. Footloose was 3rd with $10.3 million and $30.9 million in 11 days. Made with $24 million, this 80′s remake is on the right track to becoming profitable.

The Three Musketeers in 4th place was for lack of better words, a disaster thanks to an $8.6 million opening weekend. This is enough to make even Conan the Barbarian jealous (one of the bigger bombs this year). With this puny opening, even a total of $20 million from North America seems like a stretch now. Director Paul W.S. Anderson probably isn’t very happy with this result but around the world musketeers is still doing decent business so it ain’t all bad.

The Ides of March rounds up the top 5 with $4.8 million and a total of $29.4 million after 18 days. In Dolphin Tale/Moneyball news, the flicks are still at it with $4.2 versus $3.9 million in 6th and 7th place with $64.6 and $63.9 million after 32 days. I can’t remember the last time two movies opening at the same time ran so close to each other. Next weekend (thanks to Puss in Boots) should be when Moneyball leaves Dolphin Tale behind.

Johnny English Reborn in 8th place with $3.8 million was a far cry from the $9.1 million opening of Johnny English in 2003. With numbers like that, this film is looking at $9-10 million max.

The last wide release of the weekend, The Mighty Macs, wasn’t able to even reach $1 million and had to settle for 15th place. This will be out of theaters in 2 weeks with no more then $2 million made in total.

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Quite a bunch of remakes came out this year proving once again that Hollywood is very close to running out of ideas (they are making a Farmville movie, come on). It comes as no surprise that neither The Thing or Footloose were strong enough to bring robot boxing movie Real Steel down from the top spot.

Thanks to weak competition Real Steel manage to remain first with $16.2 million bringing the family flick at $51.7 million in 10 days. The 40.4% drop is decent and makes me believe that this movie could have a relatively long stay in the top 10 if it can keep this up. Still, numbers should definitely be higher for Real Steel considering the very high production costs.

Some called it pointless, others fun but the consent around Footloose is that, surprisingly the movie ain’t bad. A $15.5 million opening was good enough for 2nd place, and on a budget of $24 million Paramount are safe since it will make more than double that when all will be said and done. But the question remains, did we need this remake?

In 3rd place comes what could be considered a less pointless remake that technically is actually a prequel. The problem with this film is no one asked for a remake or prequel and the original The Thing is still very well regarded by fans of the genre. What Universal showed in previews for this new version wasn’t nearly as compelling as it should have been so no wonder the 2011 The Thing opened with just $8.4 million.

The Ides of March was in 4th place with $7.1 million for $21.7 million in 10 days. Dolphin Tale finished 5th while Moneyball was 6th. First one made $58.5 million while the later sits at $57.6 million, both in 24 days. I still think Moneyball will come out first in this battle.

50/50 in 7th had the smallest drop in the top 10, down $24.6 million for $4.2 million and a total of $24.2 million for this $8 million cancer dramedy.

Christina flick Courageous (produced by the very small company Sherwood Pictures, responsible for the sleeper hit Fireproof in 2008) was 8th with $3.3 million and has generated a total of $21.2 million in 17 days. That’s more than ten times the $2 million they spent on it.

The Big Year was 9th with a $3.2 million opening weekend and this is definitely what we could call a box office bomb. Jack Black, Steve Martin and Owen Wilson were not enough to propel this comedy higher. Finally The Lion King 3D was 10th with $2.7 million, likely for the last time in the top 10. Thanks to the $90.5 million grossed in this new run, The Lion King stands at a whopping $419 million in total. That’s 9th place on the all time North American chart and it could possibly get to 8th place where Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest has been sitting for the past 5 years with $423.3 million.

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The robot boxing live-action flick Real Steel took the number one spot both in North America and around the world last weekend. While west of the Atlantic there wasn’t much of a fight, internationally Johnny English Reborn gave Real Steel a run for its money.

Real Steel generated $27.3 million in North America and $22.1 million in 19 other markets bringing the flick to a worldwide box office total of $54.6 million so far. For something released in October this would be a great number but unfortunately for Real Steel, the Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots movie came with a hefty price tag rumored to be somewhere around $147 million. In the US the movie could end up grossing over $100 million with good word of mouth while internationally the sky is the limit as they say. But I think over $200 million would be a more down to earth guess. Ultimately, it’s not going to be easy for Real Steel to become profitable.

The Ides of March took 2nd place in North America with $10.4 million. Coming from Sony, this was the other new release of the weekend.

Internationally Johnny English Reborn was 2nd with $21.1 million for a total of $61.3 million so far. The movie comes out in North America in little over a week so I’m expecting $20 something million from there also.

Dolphin Tale was 3rd with $9.1 million domestically for $51.3 million total while Moneyball was 4th with $7.4 million and a $50.9 million total. This two have had 21 days in release so far and are still going at it stronger then ever. My money is still on Moneyball taking the edge when all will be said and done.

Finally for North America, 50/50 was 5th with $5.6 million for $18.9 million in 12 days. Before I switch back to international box office I have to mention The Lion King 3D, 7th place with an epic $87.1 million made in 26 days. This is now just 0.5 million shy of the $900 million worldwide mark. Actually, considering how much money The Lion King 3D makes on a given day, I think it’s already there so congrats to Disney for bringing back a 17 year old series and making it the most successful movie of the autumn thus far.

Back to international box office where, maybe you didn’t hear but The Smurfs isn’t number one for the first time in 9 weeks, wow. Yep, the live-action debut of the animated classic was 3rd for the first time ever with $8.5 million for a ridiculous worldwide total of $532.7 million.

4th place has Rise of the Planet of the Apes with $7.8 million for a total of $418.4 million worldwide. Execs at Fox must feel so proud of themselves right about now. In 5th place The Lion King 3D grossed another $7.3 million and as mentioned above, it’s just shy of $900 million making it the 20th movie to ever reach that mark worldwide.

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Dolphin Tale managed to slip to first place after some underwhelming new movies couldn’t even reach the top 3 during the weekend. Neither Courageous, 50/50, Dream House or What’s Your Number? were strong enough to make a difference. Anyway, the order and numbers are right after the break.

Dolphin Tale fell only 27.4% from a week ago for a $13.9 million weekend, surprisingly, just enough for the number one spot. The Warner Bros. family flick is now at $37.8 million after 11 days. In 2nd place, Moneyball grabbed $12 million and stands at $38.8 million after 11 days. So while Dolphin Tale was stronger over the weekend, Moneyball has the upper hand on weekdays. It’s going to be a tough call trying to name which of these two that will end up with more green. Puss in Boots might take a hit on Dolphin Tale in 3 weeks so Moneyball could make a run for it then.

3rd place belongs to The Lion King 3D with $10.6 million for $79.7 million in this run and a whopping $408.3 million overall in North America. Thanks to this incredible 3D box office run, The Lion King is now back in the all time US Top 10. No surprise that Disney announced they will also re-release 4 other classics in 3D.

Courageous is the first new release from last weekend and probably the most successful with a $9 million opening weekend for a movie that cost just $2 million to make. Impressive enough was also 50/50 with an $8.6 million opening on an $8 million budget. It’s a given that neither of this two movies will lose money for their respective studios, so while numbers where underwhelming, the bottom line is what counts.

Dream House in 6th is probably the biggest flop of the newcomers with an $8.2 million opening for a $50 million flick. Daniel Craig doesn’t seem to be able to shake his bad luck streak at the box office outside of the Bond franchise.

Abduction was a decent 7th place with $5.6 million for $19.4 million in 11 days while the last wide newcomer, What’s Your Number?, was 8th with a $5.4 million opening weekend. On a $20 million budget it won’t be easy for this movie to break even at the box office.

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This is definitely something no one could have predicted a few weeks ago, I mean The Lion King, a 17 year old animated movie becoming the highest grosser of the month. But, you know, there was nothing even remotely close to it besides Contagion in September so we could also attribute that to lackluster sales for mostly lackluster movies. Anyway, you guys probably wonder how the other movies performed and that comes right after the break.

Okay, The Lion King 3D is kicking some serious ass for a second weekend in a row with $21.9 million for an astonishing $62.9 after 11 days. By comparison, Contagion has made $57.6 million after 18 days. Thanks to all this new found money, the classic animated feature is now at $391.5 million in North America, going from 24th to 12th place on the all time US table in the past two weeks. Even better news, the initial 2 weeks only theater engagement that this movie had has been extended and The Lion King 3D will be here next weekend, with a bit of luck in first place again.

The rest of the top 5 is filled with new entries starting with Moneyball in 2nd. The Brad Pitt sports drama wasn’t strong enough to upset The Lion King but it was good none the less. $19.5 million is a decent result for the genre and when it comes to baseball movies openings it ranks 2nd just behind The Benchwarmers. Moneyball reportedly cost $50 million to produce and with the current opening in mind, I’m expecting it will finish with over $80 million in North America. I could say that profitability on this flick is very likely.

Next up Dolphin Tale was 3rd with $19.1 million, very impressive and even more so considering this went up against The Lion King with family audiences, yet neither seemed to suffer all that much. Good reviews and expected great word of mouth could lead Dolphin Tale to $100 million or more in North America making this a very profitable affair for Warner Bros. since it cost just $37 million to make.

Taylor Lautner’s Abduction finished 4th with $10.9 million and considering just how bad this movie was, I’d say the kid definitely helped its odds, raising a lot more money then it would have normally. I’m actually all the more impressive that this beat fellow action movie Killer Elite ($9.3 million), starring Jason Statham, Clive Owen and Rober DeNiro. Abduction got worse reviews  (3% versus 25% on Rotten Tomatoes) and was much cheaper ($35 million versus $70 million) yet it opened higher. So can Taylor Lautner open a movie? Yes he can, just not as big as some studios think.

Finally, thanks to all the above, 23-25 2011 is now the highest grossing September weekend ever.

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