It was a close race last weekend at the box office with both Chronicle and The Woman in Black scoring over $20 million on their debuts, thus beating even the most optimistic expectations. Not the same could be said about Big Miracle, the return of Drew Barrymore, opening below expectations.

Chronicle ranked 1st over the Super Bowl weekend with $22 million, which is the 5th highest opening weekend ever for a found footage flick. Among superhero movies it’s a respectable 39th place, quite a feat for an original property. Made for just $15 million, Chronicle could go on to gross $60 million or so in North America. With such numbers there’s a good chance we might see a sequel in the not so distant future, we’re talking about Fox after all.

The Woman in Black opened to $20.8 million, enough to rank 1st a week ago, now only 2nd behind Chronicle. Among period horrors, The Woman in Black had the 8th highest debut and could finish somewhere between $50 and 55 million in North America. It was a very cheap movie to acquire for CBS Films so they must be ecstatic to finally have a hit on their hands. Also Daniel Radcliffe might be packing some box office muscles after all.

In 3rd place we have former leader The Grey with $9.3 million and $35.3 million after 11 days. Compared to past Liam Neeson action flicks Taken ($54.9 million in 11 days) and Unknown ($43.8 million in 11 days), The Grey is running way behind and I seriously doubt it can go higher than $60 million in North America at this point. Fortunately, with a $25 million price tag The Grey is still very much a hit.

Big Miracle, the last new wide release of the week, opened in 4th place with a disappointing $7.7 million take. Not a good sign for actress Drew Barrymore that, according to Box Office Mojo, has a wide release opening average of $12 million. On a brighter note, it does rank higher than the $6.8 million opening of her last effort, comedy Going the Distance.

Rounding out the top 5 was Underworld Awakening with $5.5 million for $54.8 million after 18 days. It’s running a good $1.4 million ahead of Underworld: Evolution at the same point in its run so it should end up higher than the $62.3 million made by that, meaning a new series high, unadjusted for inflation.

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The Grey, starring Liam Neeson with some other dudes and a pack of wolves, opened in 1st place over the weekend with little in the way of competition. Fellow action flick Man on a Ledge only managed 5th place even with its PG-13 rating while action-comedy One for the Money, in 3rd, marked Katherine Heigl’s worst opening in 6 years.

Liam Neeson showed his box office muscle once again in The Grey, an R-rated man-versus-nature action flick that opened with $19.6 million, more than enough to secure the top spot. Among Liam Neeson’s last action efforts, The Grey sports a softer debut then the likes of Taken ($24.7M), The A-Team ($25.6M) and Unknown ($21.8 million), but those had PG-13 ratings which certainly helped. Based on its opening and how I think the next couple of weeks will run, The Grey should finish around $65-70 million in North America. Great news for a $20 million film.

In 2nd place former leader Underworld Awakening had the best 2nd weekend in the series history with $12.3 million. That brings its total to $44.9 million in 10 days, running ahead of Underworld: Evolution‘s $44.6 million after 10 days. This means Underworld Awakening is also on track for $65-70 million when all will be said and done.

Katherine Heigl’s One for the Money was 3rd with $11.5 million, a disappointing debut for her. With a budget of $40 million and a 3% Rotten Tomato rating, this is one stinker Lionsgate will definitely shove under the rug soon enough. Can’t see this finishing above $25 million in North America.

In 4th place holdover Red Tails made $10.3 million, a decent 44.8% drop from last week. With $33.7 million in 10 days, Red Tails will most likely run out of fuel before it can reach $50 million.

Rounding up the top 5 is newcomer Man on a Ledge and with just $8 million over the weekend, you could start to feel like jumping from a ledge once you take into consideration the high $42 million price tag of the flick. Although I recommend a ledge that’s not to far from the ground, we don’t want any serious injuries. Regarding Sam Worthington, he hasn’t had a hit since Clash of the Titans way back in April 2010 so he probably can’t wait for Wrath of the Titans to come out in just two months from now.

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Underworld did not disappoint over the weekend but the real surprise was Red Tails, the all-black World War 2 drama that over-performed. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close was in line with its already weak expectations, same as Haywire, a disappointing 6th place for what looked like a very promising action flick at the box office.

You’d think that a niche franchise like Underworld would die down after 9 years but that’s not the case, at least not so far. With one released every three years, not milking this series dry probably helps. Anyway, Underworld Awakening made $25.3 million over the weekend, up from the $20.8 million made by Underworld: Rise of the Lycans in 2009 and down from the $26.8 million made by Underworld: Evolution in 2006. Considering the inflated 3D and IMAX prices, attendance is probably at an all-time-low for the series. Still, $25 million is a good start but it will take a strong overseas performance to recoup the $70 million budget. I’m thinking Underworld Awakening should stop around $60 million or so in North America.

In 2nd place Red Tails, the long dormant George Lucas pet project, opened with $18.7 million. The story of the Tuskegee Airmen (the first African American military aviators in the United States armed forces) proved to be more popular then the studios that refused to finance the project thought it would be. But with George Lucas being the billionaire that he is, it was no problem for him to take $58 million out of his own pocket to make this. Supposedly he even paid for prints, distribution and marketing, another $35 million or so. Will the movie ever make that money back? Probably not but for someone like George Lucas $93 million is not that big of a loss. The Lucas estate generates hundreds of millions every year so it’s nice when they decide to give something back and this was definitely a worthy cause.

In 3rd place Contraband made $12 million for a 10-day total of $45.9 million. It’s now the 13th highest grossing Mark Wahlberg film and could finish as high as 8th with $60 million or more.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close was 4th with $10 million after expanding from 6 to 2630 theaters. Considering both Sandra Bullock and Tom Hanks star in this, $10 million is a bit underwhelming for the 9/11 drama.

The 3D re-release of Beauty and the Beast was 5th with $8.7 million for a total of $204.9 million (all releases) and Steven Soderbergh’s promising R-rated action flick Haywire was 6th with only $8.4 million. Not much of an opening considering the talent attached better luck next time.

Joyful Noise was 7th with $5.9 million and $21.7 million so far. Meanwhile Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol made another $5.5 million (8th) for a total of $197.3 million. It will finish somewhere around $212-216 million.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows grossed $4.5 million in 9th place and has $178.3 million so far. This should reach at least $190 million.

Rounding up the top 10 was The Iron Lady with $3.6 million and a total of $12.5 million.

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Both Contraband and Beauty and the Beast 3D opened higher than expected over the long 4-day Martin Luther King Jr. weekend. Two weeks in and 2012 is off to a great start without any intention of slowing down anytime soon.

Contraband took home the crown with an extremely impressive $28.5 million take over the 4-day weekend. As far as Mark Wahlberg movies go, that’s his 7th highest opening yet but unlike all those films before, he was the main pull for Contraband. I guess the smell of Max Payne has finally gone. Contraband could finish around $65-70 million or more, depending on how well it can hold its own next weekend against another fresh batch of action movies.

Coming in 2nd was Beauty and the Beast 3D. The re-released Disney classic grabbed $22.3 million over the 4-day weekend pushing the domestic lifetime gross of the film to $193.5 million. Very impressive considering Disney almost didn’t release this 3D version, not to mention it’s already available on Blu-ray (but then how many families have a 3D TV at home?) Beauty and the Beast should at least grab $60 million from this new 3D box office run, bringing its total to $231 million or more.

In 3rd place Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol continued to play very well even with Contraband clearly stealing some of its audience. With $14.2 million over the 4-day weekend Ghost Protocol is now at $189.4 million, higher than the $180.9 million of Mission: Impossible (1996) and $26 million short of Mission: Impossible 2 (2000). Ghost Protocol is gonna drop under $1 million a day starting this week and next weekend $7 million is be as high as it can go. Basically it will reach $200 million sometime next week, either Monday or Tuesday. From that point on there’s a 50/50 chance it can pull $15 million more (maybe with a bit of help from Paramount later in its run) and become the highest grosser of the series.

Joyful Noise was 4th and in line with expectations taking $13.8 million over the 4-day weekend. It’s a good opening but let’s just say that it won’t make Queen Latifah’s top 10, not even close (15th actually). Now Dolly Parton hasn’t been seen on the big screen for 20 years so for her I guess it’s better.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows rounds up the top 5 with $10.4 million for $172 million after 32 days. It’s now $19.5 million behind Sherlock Holmes (2009) so on track to finish at $190-195 million. Former leader The Devil Inside was 6th with $9 million over the 4-day weekend while newly expanded Meryl Streep drama The Iron Lady was only 11th with $6.6 million over the 4-day weekend. Oh well, at least it got her a Golden Globe (her 8th, but who’s counting anymore at this point), not like anyone expected The King’s Speech ($138.8 million) out of this.

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2012 started with a huge surprise courtesy of The Devil Inside, a little found-footage paranormal horror. It didn’t just beat Mission: Impossible 4(in its 4th weekend to be fair), it more than doubled even the most optimistic box office predictions and achieved the 3rd highest January opening weekend ever, behind only Cloverfield and the re-release of Star Wars (1997).

So how does a little movie, supposedly costing $1 million to make, go about grossing $33.7 million in its opening weekend? Probably a successful marketing campaign from Paramount, one that managed to escape me. Ultimately the proof is in the pudding, box office numbers in our case and The Devil Inside opened higher than past January releases like The Green Hornet (3D), The Book of Eli, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and Gran Torino. But unlike those, The Devil Inside received an all-time low F CinemaScore from viewers, so expect really pour legs leading to probably no more than $65 million at the end of its run.

In 2nd place we have another strong weekend from Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol with $19.8 million for a sturdy $169.5 million total after 24 days. Now I’m positive Tom Cruise’s last effort will not only finish above $200 million but might also challenge Mission: Impossible 2‘s $215.4 million and claim the title of highest grosser in the series, unadjusted for inflation obviously (it would need over $325 million to beat Mission: Impossible – 1996).

3rd place is Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and speaking of Sherlock, I finally got around to checking the BBC mini-series and wow, impressed so far. Back to the main topic, A Game of Shadows made $13.6 million and so far $157 million in 24 days. Sherlock Holmes was at $180 million after 24 days so the newer one is slowly catching up. However it’s slower than it should and because of that I can’t see it finishing above $190 million in North America. Not a bad total but I was expecting a bit more.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was 4th with $11.3 million and $76.9 million in 19 days, and I still haven’t seen it. Also a bit underwhelming but as it was reported already, Sony are moving forward with The Girl who Played with Fire, a strange move since The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo barely started rolling internationally so there’s no way of knowing how big it might end up.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked made $9.5 million for 5th place and $111.5 million so far. In 6th place War Horse grossed $8.6 million and $56.9 million in 15 days. Disney say this cost only $66 million but I’ve seen War Horse and it definitely looks a lot more expensive. It won’t win anything other than technical awards (the cinematography is breathtaking) but that doesn’t mean it was a bad flick, just not as great as I was hoping it would be. It’s a good Spielberg movie that might finish its run with $75-80 million.

We Bought a Zoo was 7th with $8.3 million for $56.4 million while The Adventures of Tintin was 8th with $6.7 million and a $62 million total for this second Steven Spielberg-directed film. Next is newly expanded Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy in 9th thanks to $5.4 million from 809 theaters (up from 57 the week before). The British spy film has made $10.1 million so far. Rounding up the top 10 is The Darkest Hour with $3.1 million for $18.7 million making it the box office flop of the holiday season. Good thing it only cost $30 million.

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It’s safe to say at this point that Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol was by far the most popular movie of the holiday season and it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. Runner-ups Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked also made a good impression on the last weekend of the year after some very disappointing openings just two weeks ago.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol grossed $29.4 million over the December 30th and January 1st period, finishing on top a second time in a row. The movie has been leading the North American box office since December 21st and with not much in the way of competition in the next two weeks, Ghost Protocol has a chance to challenge The Help‘s 25 day record, the highest any movie has gotten since The Sixth Sense (35 days). Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol is at $141.2 million after 18 days, mighty impressive and well on its way to a $200+ million final tally.

Not as impressive was Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows with $20.8 million, a 3% increase over Christmas weekend. That brings the movie at $136.9 million, $29.4 million down compared to the original at the same point in its run. Since Sherlock Holmes made $209 million in 2009, A Game of Shadows should at the very least finish with $180 million in North America.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked is more or less a wreck compared to the previous movies in the series and not even a 30.1% increase was enough to save face here. With $16.3 million over the weekend, Chipwrecked stands at $97.8 million after 18 days and should stop around $140 million, lower than $217.3 million and the $219.6 million made by past Chipmunks adventures.

In 4th place we have a movie I actually managed to forget when making the box office forecast for the weekend, that movie is The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. I know, shame on me but, while the movie seems to be great (haven’t had the chance to check it out yet) its box office performance is nothing to write home about. $14.8 million over the weekend and $60 million after 13 days. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not a disaster or anything but I was expecting slightly more from it at this point. Alas, Sony seem to be happy with it and so should we since they will be moving forward with the second part.

Also underwhelming is War Horse with $14.4 million and $44.9 million in 9 days. Good thing this Steven Spielberg epic didn’t cost Disney all that much, coming in at $66 million, or so they say. Either way it won’t go much higher than $70-75 million.

Cameron Crowe has a thing for not making financially successful movies when not casting Tom Cruise in a role so I’m surprised to say that We Bought a Zoo is different. It has Matt Damon instead and made $13.2 million, good for 6th place and $46 million after 11 days. That actually makes it the 3rd highest grossing Cameron Crowe directed movie and from the looks of it, I doubt it will stop before $70 million. The budget for this flick is supposed to be around $50 million so with international box office it should make that back.

Speaking of international box office, in 7th place we have The Adventures of Tintin, already a hit around the world where it started rolling out way back in October. This is another Steven Spielberg directed film and has made $11.4 million over the weekend and $53.1 million in 14 days. Since it already doubled its budget internationally, everything The Adventures of Tintin makes in the states could be considered a bonus (but not really because both Sony and Paramount handle distribution around the world).

Overall box office was down from the last New Year weekend and it seems 2011 as a whole is down in both attendance and gross over 2010. Thanks to some very high profile movies coming out in the upcoming year Hollywood aims to change that picture in 2012, but can they really?

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It’s almost Christmas and box office is still down from last year’s already disappointing December. We’d have to go all the way to 2008 to find a worse weekend just before Christmas. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened to around 2/3 of the original while Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked was less than half of The Squeakquel. The only good news comes from Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol‘s record breaking limited release.

Sequels have been hit or miss this year and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is no different. After opening with an underwhelming $39.6 million (original opened with $62.3 million a week after Avatar), Sherlock will need very strong box office legs to match the $209 million grossed by the first one in North America. Right now $180 million seems to be the ceiling but that could change next weekend depending on how well this Robert Downey Jr. film can hold its own against the upcoming flood of new releases. The original Sherlock Holmes survived Avatar so A Game of Shadows has a certain reputation to live up to.

In 2nd place Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked scored $23.2 million, a new series low after Alvin and the Chipmunks opened with $44.3 million while the second one grabbed $48.8 million. Among TV cartoons brought to the big screen, Chipwrecked‘s opening compares to Garfield: The Movie ($21.7 million) and is a lot lower than this year’s The Smurfs. Speaking of those blue devils, a few months ago I mentioned they threw the glove at Alvin and his gang and as far as I can tell after just one weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked will definitely lose to The Smurfs.

Now here’s a movie that didn’t disappoint, on the contrary, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol grossed $12.7 million over the weekend in just 425 theaters, setting a new limited release (under 600 theaters) opening record, previously held by Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason with $8.6 million in 530 theater. Truth be told, most of those were IMAX theaters with their super inflated ticket prices and around 40 of them showed the 6-minute prologue of The Dark Knight Rises. But besides all of this Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol had another very important aspect going for, it’s a damn great movie and for me personally the best in the series. On Wednesday the film expands to over 3400 theaters so I’m expecting some impressive numbers over the coming days.

Rounding up the top 5 were New Year’s Eve with $7.3 million for $24.7 million in 10 days and The Sitter with 4.6 million and $17.9 million so far.

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In the worst weekend of the year, New Year’s Eve severely underperformed driving the box office to historic lows. Other than that everything else was more or less in line with expectations.

Valentine’s Day, the movie that New Year’s Eve follows, opened with $56.3 million back in February 2010. With that in mind and for various other reasons, most thought this new film would at least gross half, what we got instead was a borderline disastrous $13 million opening. Only because there’s nothing else out there strong enough to push better numbers, New Year’s Eve was numbers one. At this point Warner Bros. should consider themselves lucky if this train-wreck will at the very least match the $56 million production budget (that they declared and I have serious problems believing). Fortunately with Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked opening next weekend, everything should go back to normal at the box office.

Surprisingly The Sitter did not bomb and neither was it a breakout hit, just extremely average with a $9.8 million gross, enough for 2nd place. Compared to past Johan Hill films, it ranks on the low end.

In 3rd place The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 lost a bit more than I thought it would. After falling 52.7%, this is now the worst 4th weekend drop in the series, taking in $7.8 million for a $259.4 million total. With $7.9 million behind New Moon at the same point in time, Breaking Dawn – Part 1 will need to start gaining ground quickly in order to reach at the very least $290 million.

The Muppets was 4th finally showing some box office legs with $6.9 million and a total of $65.7 million. Surprisingly Arthur Christmas took 5th place over Hugo (in 6th) and now the fight between this two is really close. Arthur Christmas made $6.5 million while Hugo grossed $6 million, both with a total of $33.4 million. Sorry Mr. Scorsese but my money is now on Arthur Christmas finishing ahead.

So what did we learn this week? Not even a huge cast of A-listers can save a train-wreck, Jonah Hill can pull average numbers all by himself, vampires and werewolves have never been more popular (but at what cost), hand puppets can have legs and Santa’s CGI son is not as popular but at least he tries his best.

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This past weekend seemed like it would offer a tight race between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 and The Muppets with many predicting the latter winning. In the end Breaking Dawn – Part 1 finished in first place once again, doing so with a solid $5.5 million lead over The Muppets.

For the first time ever a Twilight movie lead the North American box office for three consecutive weekends and as far as accurate data can tell me, no other film featuring vampires managed to achieve anything like that before. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 made $16.5 million over the weekend for a new total of $246.9 million in 17 days. At the same point in time, New Moon had $255.3 million so considering last week $10 million separated the two, the gap is getting smaller with Breaking Dawn – Part 1 showing all-around better box office legs that could help it finish higher than initially anticipated. A total of $290-295 million is the new target here (New Moon made $296.6 million, Eclipse $300.5 million and the original Twilight $192.7 million).

In second place The Muppets took a bit of a nosedive with $11 million, down 62.1% for a 12 day total of $56.3 million. If it doesn’t get back up soon, The Muppets won’t reach the $100 million mark that was looking like a sure thing just seven days ago.

Hugo on the other hand was in line with expectations, down only 33.5% (lowest drop in the top 10) with $7.5 million and $25.1 million in 12 days. Hugo has to keep this up and not drop the next two weekends in order to make a strong push on Christmas and thus have a chance at over $100 million in North America.

Arthur Christmas was 4th with $7.4 million and $25.3 million in 12 days. What I said about Hugo applies here as well. Rounding up the top 5 was Happy Feet Two and the $5.9 million it grossed. In 17 days this animated flick made just $51.7 million while the original Happy Feet had $121.5 million at the same point in its run.

In a slightly limited release (574 theaters) the George Clooney flick The Descendents grossed another $4.7 million for 7th place and $17.6 million in 19 days, showing signs that it may have very well reached a ceiling of some kind at the box office.

Also in limited release My Week with Marilyn made $1.1 million in 244 theaters for 12th place and $3.8 million after 12 days. Again, starting to slow down before reaching a wider release, not a good sign for the box office prospects for this film.

Finally the very limited release (10 theaters) of Shame generated $349,519 for 17th place. We’ll have to wait and see how expanding the theater count will change the numbers for Shame before I can give a good indication of where this might end up. What I can tell you is that Showgirls (1995), the highest grossing NC-17 film, made $20.3 million. But, if I were a betting man I’d say Shame is more likely to finish around Lust, Caution (2007, $4.6 million), another NC-17 movie, rather than Showgirls.

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The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 took on a pack of family films on a family holiday weekend and still managed to emerge on top, proof yet again of the power teen girls posses (if we needed any at this point).

The vampire love story made $61.8 million over the long 5-day Thanksgiving weekend, a step down from the $66.2 million generated by The Twilight Saga: New Moon back in 2009 over the same holiday. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 lost a bit of traction during weekdays but came back up over the normal weekend when it made $41.6 million (3-day weekend) compared to the $42.8 million grossed by New Moon two years ago. That actually amounts to a strangely similar drop pattern between the two, New Moon falling 70% while Breaking Dawn – Part 1 lost 69.8%. After just 10 days in theaters the latest Twilight movie has amassed $220.8 million while New Moon had $230.9 million at the same point in time. Since New Moon finished with $296.6 million, it’s safe to say that Breaking Dawn – Part 1 should stop around the same mark, maybe just shy of $290 million.

New release The Muppets was 2nd with a 5-day of $41.5 million and a 3-day weekend of $29.2 million. I think we can say at this point that The Muppets can join the ranks of other successful reboots that were released this year (X-Men: First Class and Rise of the Planet of the Apes come to mind). Made on a budget of $45 million, The Muppets should have a good box office run over the coming month thanks to the holiday season. It will probably finish north of $130 million in North America, more than enough for Disney to green-light a sequel for say, 2013?

In 3rd place Happy Feet Two grossed $18.3 million over the 5-day holiday and $13.3 million for the 3-day weekend. By now I can tell you Happy Feet Two won’t come even close to $100 million in North America since it’s falling further and further behind the original. The sequel has $43.7 million after 10 days while Happy Feet had $99.2 million at the same point in its run and that movie finished with $198 million. With Happy Feet Two not able to stay at 50% of the original, you can see why I’m so sure of my prediction.

Aardman Animations, famous for their stop-motion classics like Chicken Run and Wallace and Gromit, opened their second fully computer generated feature film with Arthur Christmas. With $16.3 million over the 5-day holiday and $12 million for the weekend, Arthur Christmas finished 4th. Unfortunately for the studio this was their worst wide opening to date. The Christmas theme might help this animated flick over the long run and ensure good box office legs during the second half of December so things might not be so bad after all. Arthur Christmas could still finish around $80 million or more in North America.

Rounding up the top 5 was another new release, Martin Scorsese’s Hugo. $15.4 million over the 5-day holiday and $11.3 million for the weekend might make it look like this big budget family film as a box office flop but hear me out for a second. You see, for fear of a bad opening weekend (since the movie wasn’t tracking very well with families) Paramount cut the theater count from 3000+ to 1277. This was made in an effort to make Hugo a platform release, generating good word of mouth and increasing the theater count as demand grew since they knew what a little gem of a movie they had. A gem that could run well during the very financially attractive Christmas period. We’ll just have to see how this marketing ploy will work for Paramount and Hugo.

What did we learn today? Twilight is a beast fuelled by teen girls, handmade puppets are still popular, there’s nothing happy about the box office run of Happy Feet Two, Aardman can’t open a animated flick to save their life and Martin Scorsese is not as successful without Leonardo DiCaprio.

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