We have four wide releases this weekend, two new, one sequel, and a 3D re-release. Date movie The Vow has the best chances to claim the top spot with Star Wars and Safe House fighting for 2nd place. Sequel Journey 2: The Mysterious Island should come in 4th.

Now we might be in for a strong weekend at the box office but at least according to critics The Phantom Menace is all eye candy with no substance, The Vow is shallow, Safe House is uninspired, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is, and I quote: “aggressively unambitious”. But then again, what do they know, right? Chances are there’s something for everyone this weekend.

The Vow is looking to replicate the success of Dead John, a movie released 2 years ago starring the same Channing Tatum and opening with $30.4 million. Then there’s Rachel McAdams and she’s been in quite a few hits. With Valentine’s Day right around the corner, I guess couples will boost this to around $30 million, more than enough for the top spot.

For 2nd place I’m split between Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace and Safe House. For Star Wars we have to keep in mind that there’s still a generation out there that grew up with Cartoon Network’s Clone Wars series, one that never experienced Star Wars in theaters. They should be part of the driving force behind The Phantom Menace. Now Safe House stars Denzel Washington and that’s more than enough for an opening north of $20 million. As an added bonus we get Ryan Reynolds in what should be at the very least a cool action flick. I’m thinking both should gross $22-23 million over the weekend.

Journey to the Center of the Earth opened in 2008 with $21 million and went on to gross $101.7 million, becoming one of the surprise hits of that year. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is the sequel to that flick and while it lacks one Brendan Fraser, it certainly makes up for that with Dwayne Johnson, while Josh Hutcherson acts as the only familiar face returning. Four years ago digital 3D was still a new thing, today it’s everywhere so I can’t see this sequel replicating the success of the original. Maybe $17 million over the weekend, 4th place.

Rounding out the top 5, Chronicle should beat The Woman in Black again with around $11 million for a 10 day total of $38 million. That’s already more than twice the $15 million reported budget.

Next week is Valentine’s Day and Fox brings in the heavy guns with McG’s This Means War, Sony unleash Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, while Disney brings to the states the latest Hayao Miyazaki (Spirited Away) animated flick, The Secret World of Arrietty.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: The Vow takes on Star Wars and Safe House at Filmonic

Found footage superhero flick Chronicle is poised to open on top over the Super Bowl Weekend in North America, but Daniel Radcliffe’s first movie since finishing the Harry Potter series, horror The Woman in Black, could upset that order. Also Drew Barrymore returns to the big screen after almost two years of absence in Big Miracle.

There’s something about the found footage sub-genre that gets people into theaters. Just a month ago we had The Devil Inside open with $33.7 million and that has made $52.8 million so far, now we have another. Fortunately Chronicle is not another horror since I think we’ve had more than enough of those. It’s more Cloverfield than Paranormal Activity, and while the later proved to be more successful, Cloverfield was no slouch either. Chronicle is a superhero origin tale and while the premise will undoubtedly attract people, we have to keep in mind that Sunday is Super Bowl and that should hit the movie’s weekend total pretty hard. I’m going to say $18 million for first place.

My second place pick is another film opening today, The Woman in Black. The novel spawned a very successful stage play which has been running in London since 1989, a year which also saw a TV movie made. Now we have Daniel Radcliffe in the lead for his first real box office test outside the Harry Potter franchise. Can his name alone make this a hit? Unfortunately I have to answer that question with another question. What is a hit? You see, distributor CBS Films paid $3 million to acquire The Woman in Black so I recon anything above a $10 million opening should be fine for them. I’m in a good mood today so I’ll say $15 million for The Woman in Black.

Big Miracle represents the perfect counter-programming for the other two releases mentioned above. It’s a PG family flick about whales. Just three months ago Dolphin Tale, another marine mammal movie, made quite a splash at the box office with a $19.1 million opening. But don’t expect such a debut from Big Miracle for at least two reasons: fewer theaters and no overpriced 3D. What Big Miracle will have going for itself is a bigger Sunday than the rest of the movies above. I’m thinking $12 million for 3rd place.

In 4th place we should find former leader The Grey with $10 million for a total of $35 million after 10 days. Rounding up the top 5 might be Underworld Awakening with $6 million and more than $54 million after 17 days.

Next week Dwayne Johnson replaces Brendan Fraser in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island for another Jules Verne adapted adventure, Ryan Reynolds tries to keep Denzel Washington alive in Safe House, we go back to a galaxy far far away in the 3D re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace, and Channing Tatum has to win the heart of Rachel McAdams again in The Vow.

Read similar posts to Chronicle and The Woman in Black fight for Super Bowl Weekend at Filmonic

After the huge success of Taken three years ago, Liam Neeson became something of a beginning of the year go-to star, sort of. He’s had Unknown open to good numbers last year in February and I’m guessing distributor Open Road Films expects similar results from this year’s The Grey. Also new are Summit Entertainment’s Man on a Ledge and Lionsgate’s One for the Money.

The Grey opens today in 3185 theaters and is the movie to beat. Now if this didn’t have Liam Neeson I’d probably give it $8 million or so but thanks to the 59 year old actor, everything changes. For the past three years, with the exception of The Next Three Days (small role anyway), all Liam Neeson’s live-action wide releases have opened above $20 million and while most expect $14-18 million from The Grey, I’m going a bit higher with $22 million. I know it’s R-rated (Taken and Unknown were both PG-13) but reviews are great (75% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Liam Neeson has become quite a box office draw in the past few years.

In 2nd place we should see former leader Underworld Awakening with $12 million, bringing its total to $44.5 million after 10 days, neck-a-neck with Underworld: Evolution‘s $44.6 million after 10 days.

Newcomer One for the Money will be 3rd. This is an action-comedy starring Katherine Heigl and Jason O’Mara (Terra Nova) based on a best-selling novel by Janet Evanovich. Fans of the book might help this film but that won’t be enough for it to go higher than $11 million. For Katherine Heigl this could be her worst opening flick in 6 years. For reference, her wide openings average $15.4 million according to Box Office Mojo. Also, doesn’t this look a bit too much like The Bounty Hunter?

In 4th place Red Tails could reach $10 million but looking at its weekdays, a lower number makes more sense. That will mean $33 million in 10 days and rather slim chances for the flick to reach $50 million at the end of its run in North America. Very disappointing after such a promising opening.

We finally come around to 5th place and the last new release of the weekend, Man on a Ledge. Sam Worthington, Elizabeth Banks, Jamie Bell and Ed Harris star in this familiar looking thriller. Now Sam Worthington has had success with flicks like Terminator: Salvation, Avatar and Clash of the Titans, but that doesn’t make him a box office draw, not yet anyway. Man on a Ledge just doesn’t look interesting so I’m only gonna give it $8 million.

As you all might know, on Tuesday the Academy Awards nominations were announced and that was certainly good publicity for the flicks getting a best picture nod. Today we’ve got The Descendants (5 nominations), Hugo (11) and The Artist (10) all expanding but the only one with any chance to reach the top 10 is George Clooney’s The Descendants in 1997 theaters.

Next weekend is in February already and we’ve got Universal’s Big Miracle, Fox’s Chronicles and Harry Potter’s The Woman in Black opening.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: The Grey set to top a slow weekend at Filmonic

After missing in action from Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, Kate Beckinsale returns to sink her teeth into the box office with Underworld Awakening, the 4th installment in the vampire-werewolf series. Steven Soderbergh brings us action flick Haywire while executive producer George Lucas hopes Red Tails won’t tank. Finally in wide release this weekend we also have Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

Considering previous Kate Beckinsale Underworld flicks have all opened to good numbers ($21.7M for the first and $26.8M for the second) in first place, it’s normal to expect Underworld Awakening will at the very least start between those two on top of the box office. I’d say $25 million sounds about right with the help of 3D and IMAX inflated ticket prices.

2nd place is tricky, between former leader Contraband and newcomer Red Tails, both going for about $14 million or so. Now Red Tails has been a long time coming, initially set to open in 1992. But the years passed and no studio wanted to commit so producer George Lucas ultimately paid $58 million out of his own pocket to make the film. So if this tanks, Lucas is the only one losing money. For a billionaire like him, that’s pocket change. Ultimately it was his dream project and in his shoes I would have done the same. If you want to know more about the film, check out this trailer.

4th place is also tricky, between Beauty and the Beast and the newly expanded Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, starring Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and newcomer Tomas Horn. Unlike The Iron Lady last week, this flick is expanding from 6 to 2630 theaters so a bigger take is to be expected. So $13 million from Beauty and the Beast and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is what I say.

Since we already rounded up the top 5 we’ll finish with 6th place, having Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and Haywire fight for it. Funnily enough, both are action flicks about spies, main difference being that Ghost Protocol is in its 6th week so that makes Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire not that hot for audiences, despite positive reviews. Around $7 to $8 million is what I recon they’ll both do. I hope I’m wrong about Haywire, I really do.

Next week Liam Nesson goes up against a pack of wolves in The Grey, Sam Worthington is a Man on a Ledge while Katherine Heigl falls for Terra Nova‘s Jason O’Mara in the sort of action-romantic comedy One For the Money (looking very much like The Bounty Hunter in reverse).

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Underworld returns to rule the weekend at Filmonic

MLK as in Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, that means instead of 3 days we get a full blown 4-day weekend so naturally numbers will be inflated. Today Beauty and the Beast gets a 3D re-release, Contraband stars Marky Mark and Dolly Parton returns to the big screen in the musical Joyful Noise.

The contenders for the top spot are Beauty and the Beast and Contraband but my pick for first place is going to be the classic Disney 3D re-release. Just 4 months ago The Lion King 3D opened with $30.1 million and thus an incredible opportunity appeared for Disney, re-releasing old classics in 3D. Today we have the long delayed Beauty and the Beast 3D but over the course of 2012 we’ll also get Finding Nemo 3D and they won’t stop there. What can I say, we can’t really blame them and this way a new generation can discover some of the best animated movies of the past in glorious overpriced 3D. Beauty and the Beast 3D is set to open at about $20 million or more for the 4-day long weekend.

In 2nd place Mark Wahlberg returns to his action persona in Contraband. Now you might remember two years ago an action movie called Edge of Darkness, starring a very much hated at the time Mel Gibson. Edge of Darkness opened with $17 million but that was over a normal weekend. Contraband should do a bit more, probably $18 million over the 4-day weekend.

One of my favorite movies of the holiday, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, should come in 3rd with around $16 million over the 4-day weekend. That will bring the movie to a total of $191 million in 32 days. At the same point in its run, Mission: Impossible 2 was at $186.8 million.

In 4th place the newly released Dolly Parton musical Joyful Noise should grab $14 million or so. Featuring the story of a gospel choir trying to win a national singing competition (smells a tiny bit like Sister Act) and also starring Queen Latifah, Joyful Noise has the potential to surprise.

Rounding up the top 5 will be former leader The Devil Inside with $12 million for the 4-day weekend. That means $50 million in 11 days for the $1 million found-footage supernatural horror.

Interesting to note, The Iron Lady expands today into 802 theaters after playing in very limited release for the past two weeks. It won’t be no The King’s Speech but it should get a top 10 spot with $6 million or so.

Next week Kate Beckinsale returns to the role of vampire Selene in Underworld Awakening, Steven Soderbergh is back with action flick Haywire while Red Tails brings a lot of black actors together for a World War 2 drama about a crew of pilots.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Beauty and the Beast faces Contraband over MLK weekend at Filmonic

We have only one new nationwide release this weekend and it’s Paramount’s supernatural R-rated horror The Devil Inside. Meanwhile Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol should continue to lead the box office.

Usually after the holidays movies tend to fall 50% or so and I think this weekend will be no different. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol will probably bring in another $15 million for a new 24 day total of $165 million, just $15 million shy of the 1996 original at the end of its run.

New entry The Devil Inside is fighting against Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows for 2nd place, both aiming for $11 million or so. The thing about The Devil Inside is it seems to have only cost $1 million to produce so this kind of opening will be a tremendous success for Paramount. On the other hand A Game of Shadows still has a lot of catching up to do. After 24 days it should be at $154 million where as the original Sherlock Holmes was at $180 million.

This time around I won’t forget The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, 4th place with $10 million and probably $76 million after 19 days, definitely not bad on a $90 million budget. Finally the 3rd adventure of Alvin and his gang should round up the top 5 with $9 million for $111 million in 24 days.

It should be noted that Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy goes wide today in 809 theaters and should crack the top 10 with $4 million or so after grossing $4.5 million so far in limited release since its December 9th opening.

Next week there are three new wide releases, actually two since technically the third is a re-issue, Beauty and the Beast 3D. Then there’s Universal’s Mark Wahlberg thriller Contraband and Warner Bros.’ musical Joyful Noise. This will probably be the last weekend we see Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol on top.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Ghost Protocol faces The Devil Inside at Filmonic

Once again Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol will top the North American box office, for the last time in 2011. The rest of the holdovers seem strong on their feet, including but not limited to Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, We Bought a Zoo and The Adventures of Tintin.

The very action-packed 4th entry in the Mission: Impossible series should gross another hefty $32 million or so for a new total of around $135 million, thus passing the $134 million made by Mission: Impossible 3 in 2006. If my prediction becomes reality then Ghost Protocol should also surpass the original Mission: Impossible at the same point in its run. That makes Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol a prime candidate to finish very close to the $200 million mark in North America. Internationally the movie is doing spectacular business so Mission: Impossible 5 probably isn’t all that far away.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows fell behind Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked for the past two days so the race for 2nd place should be very interesting since both movies still have a long way to go in order to catch up to their previous entries. My pick is Sherlock with $21 million while Alvin will have to settle for 3rd place and $20 million, a nice bump from last weekend. By Monday Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows should be at $131 million ($165.1 million at the same point for the original) while Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked at $96 million (Alvin 1 had $141.4 and Alvin 2 $165.3 million).

4th place will see either The Adventures of Tintin, We Bought a Zoo or War Horse. Tintin and Zoo have shown great legs so far but I can’t say the same about War Horse. Three days ago I would have picked War Horse for 2nd place without even looking back once, now it might not even make it into the top 5. The Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo started the week at over $5 million and by Thursday both films were still above $4 million. War Horse had $7 million on Monday (after opening on Sunday) and by Thursday it was already down to $3.6 million, almost half. So I except $15 million from The Adventures of Tintin, $14 million for We Bought a Zoo and a somewhat disappointing $13 million for War Horse, bringing their totals to $51 million, $41 million and $39 million for the former.
Next weekend we have just one new wide release, Paramount’s The Devil Inside, your typical R-rated horror to start the new year.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Mission Impossible set to dominate the last weekend of 2011 at Filmonic

Who would have thought a few months ago that Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol could become the “must see” movie of the holiday season? This upcoming weekend we also have a feel bad flick, something with a zoo, two Spielberg films, and an alien invasion.

Yes, on Christmas weekend we have five new wide releases and two more expanding. We’ll start with expanding Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, the 4th entry in the long-running Tom Cruise series. After an impressive limited run last weekend, Ghost Protocol is aiming for a $32 million take that should put the film at $64 million after Sunday. For now Ghost Protocol is headed for a final total of $160-180 million in North America.

New entry The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, based on the best-selling Swedish crime novel (that already saw a Swedish adaptation less than three years ago), opened on Tuesday night and has earned almost $10 million so far. This weekend the “feel bad movie of Christmas” should gross $24 million for 2nd place.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows will fall to 3rd place with $18 million and a total of $77 million after 10 days. That’s way behind Sherlock Holmes‘ $138.7 after 10 days. The good news here is A Game of Shadows still has at least eight more strong holiday days while the original as opposed to the original which opened on Christmas Day.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked could make another $15 million for over $51 million in 10 days or almost a third of the previous Chipmunks movie at the same point two years ago.

We Bought a Zoo opens today and it has a shot at 5th place if it can make $13 million or more and I think it could. It’s a nice family film and under normal circumstance it should achieve that opening.

The Adventures of Tintin opened on Wednesday and has grossed almost $5 million in two days, definitely underwhelming for the Steven Spielberg flick. This weekend it has a chance for redemption but I can’t see it with more than $12 million, only 6th place unfortunately. Good thing it has already made $240 million around the world already.

The last new entries are Spielberg’s War Horse and the Summit Entertainment’s alien invasion flick The Darkest Hour, both opening on Christmas Day, so only a single day of the weekend. I’m predicting around $10 million for War Horse and $6 million for The Darkest Hour in 7th and 8th place.

New Year’s Eve and The Sitter should round up the top 10 and in case you were wondering, the other movie going wide this weekend is My Week with Marylin in 602 theaters. In limited release the movie made $6.3 million thus far.

Next weekend is New Year’s Eve and we have absolutely no new nationwide release.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Mission: Impossible has its sight on Christmas weekend at Filmonic

It’s no secret that box office has been down lately but things are about to change this weekend with the release of three major sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol in IMAX and select theaters.

Sherlock Holmes faced off against Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel back in 2009 and unfortunately for mankind the Squeakquel won ($219.6 million versus $209 million). Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows has come for payback and should have no problems taking this weekend. Starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law again as Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, A Game of Shadows aims to match the $62.3 million opening of the original. A year ago I would have predicted at the very least $70 million for this sequel, today, after so many disappointing follow-ups I’m going to downgrade Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows to $65 million.

Next up should be Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, the third entry in the ridiculously popular singing chipmunks series based on the animated characters created for a Christmas song. Previously Alvin and the Chipmunks (2007) opened with $44.3 million and went on to gross $217.3 million. The sequel opened with $48.8 million and finished with $219.6 million. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked should open with $40 million or so and finish a good deal below the previous films. The reason for that is simple, family sequels have been down in 2011 and third entries usually make less money. But I also could be wrong.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol opens today in 425 theaters, most of which are IMAX. Making his live-action debut with this film is the famous Pixar director Brad Bird. Now this guy made some of my favorite animated movies in the past, namely The Iron Giant, The Incredibles and Ratatouille. So Ghost Protocol being my most anticipated movie in quite some time is no surprise. That being said this is the 4th entry in the Mission: Impossible series and once again stars Tom Cruise as agent Ethan Hunt. Now Mission: Impossible 3, while my favorite of the bunch, was somewhat of a box office disappointment with just $134 million in North America, significantly lower compared to the $180.9 million made by the original in 1998 or the $215.4 million of Mission: Impossible 2. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol might be headed for $40 million next weekend but for now it will have to settle with $10 million or so. On a side note, around 40 of the Ghost Protocol IMAX theaters will be showing a 6 minutes long prologue of The Dark Knight Rises (full list of venues here).

New Year’s Eve will be 4th with $7 million for $24 million after 10 days while The Sitter is going to be 5th with $6 million and $19 million in 10 days.

Next week is going to be insane with 5 new wide releases opening from the 21st up to the 25th. We got Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin (already a international hit) and War Horse, David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, We Bought a Zoo and Darkest Hour. Also Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol goes wide thanks to over 3400 theaters.

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: Sherlock Holmes fights off a bunch of singing Chipmunks at Filmonic

New Year’s Eve comes early this year at the box office courtesy of the latest Garry Marshall romantic comedy, follow-up to the 2010 hit Valentine’s Day, sporting a cast just as impressive as last time. Also Jonah Hill is ready to show us his box office chops leading a movie all alone for the very first time in The Sitter.

New Year’s Eve stars the following: Michelle Pfeiffer, Zac Efron, Robert DeNiro, Halle Berry, Cary Elwes, Jessica Biel, Seth Meyers, Carla Gugino, Til Schweiger, Katherine Heigl, Jon Bon Jovi, Sofia Vergara, Ashton Kutcher, Lea Michele, Sarah Jessica Parker, Abigail Breslin, Josh Duhamel, Hilary Swank, Chris ‘Ludacris’ Bridges and Hector Elizondo. Blink during the movie and you’ll probably miss someone. Sporting a glorious 6% on Rotten Tomatoes, quality is certainly not the strong point of this film. But who am I kidding, this is a date movie and couples of all ages will flock to see this feature over the coming month all the way to the start of January. Who’s going to watch a movie called New Year’s Eve in February, come on. Actually this is exactly what New Year’s Eve has over Valentine’s Day, 3 weeks before the holiday it tries to capitalize on instead of just a weekend. For that same reason it will open much lower then the $56.3 million made by Valentine’s Day, most likely half, so around $28 million. That being said New Year’s Eve will keep playing well over the coming weeks and probably finish close to the $110.4 million grossed by Valentine’s Day during its run in North America.

Fighting for 2nd place there isn’t anything else other than new entry The Sitter (unless it completely bombs). Starring Jonah Hill in an R-rated comedy about a babysitter (a movie we already saw a long time ago), The Sitter is aiming for $11 million or so.

Former three-times-in-a-row leader The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 will have to settle for 3rd place with $8.5 million for a 24-day total of $260 million, just $7 million behind New Moon (2009) at the same point in its run.

Hugo will be 4th with $7.5 million, basically the same number as last week, proving that the Martin Scorsese flick will have strong legs during the holiday. $35 million should be the new total here after 19 days.

Finally rounding up the top 5 is going to be The Muppets with $7 million and a total of $65.7 million after 19 days.

Next week we get a bit of a deja vu with Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked finishing the fight started back in December 2009 when both previous entries opened the same week (Alvin won, $219.6 million versus $209 million).

Read similar posts to Box Office Forecast: New Year’s Eve targets the top spot at Filmonic