Historically the last weekend of April has been a dumping ground but in recent years, thanks to films like Fast Five, that has changed. While none of the flicks opening today plan to go that far, it should still be a good final spring weekend, most likely lead by The Five-Year Engagement.

The guys behind comedies like Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Get Him to the Greek, actor/writer Jason Segel and director/writer Nick Stoller, bring us The Five Year Engagement. Starring Jason Segel, Emily Blunt and sporting a 60% rating on Rotten Tomatoes right now, this film should have no problem finishing the weekend first with $21 million or more. Back in 2008 Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with $17.7 million while Get Him to the Greek had $17.5 million, so The Five-Year Engagement might mark a new high for the Segel and Stoller duo.

Former leader Think Like a Man has to fend off the latest Aardman animation for it to come in 2nd. While the mostly black comedy has the upper hand here and should bring in at least $18 million, The Pirates! Band of Misfits is no slouch either. The highest an Aardman animated flick has ever opened was in 2006 with Flushed Away at $18.8 million. With a Rotten Tomatoes rating 87%, about the only thing going against The Pirates! is the stop-motion animation used to make it, unfortunately not as popular as CGI these days. I’m going to say $17.5 million and 3rd for the weekend.

Romantic flick The Lucky One will probably be 4th with $12 million for a 10-day total of $40 million while The Hunger Games should round out the top 5 with $9 million for a new total of $370 million in 38 days. That would put the flick $4 million ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 at the same point in its run.

We have two more movies opening wide today, The Raven, a thriller where John Cusack plays Edgar Allan Poe, and Safe, an R-rated action flick starring everyone’s favorite semi-bold British guy, Jason Statham. The John Cusack flick is absolutely trashed by critics (19% on Rotten Tomatoes) but the subject matter could still bring a few buts in sits, so I think $8 million sounds about right. With Safe I’m not expecting more than $7 million.

Next week the summer season starts at the box office with Marvel’s The Avengers, quite simply the stuff fanboy dreams are made of.

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Almost 3 months in and 2012 has been very good for movie studios, at least as far as box office numbers go. Today The Hunger Games opens to extremely high expectations, ones that it’s very likely to meet. If you want to know just how far I think The Hunger Games can go, continue right after the break.

So it’s finally here, The Hunger Games, in 4137 theaters, by far the widest opening we’ve had in 2012 so far. Now often enough this film, based on a series of young adult oriented novels, has been compared to Stephanie Meyer’s Twilight. By now we all know how big that franchise has become at the box office, both in North America and around the world, so The Hunger Games has a steep hill to climb in order to become that next Twilight. As far as reviews go, with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes, The Hunger Games has Twilight already beaten (49% for the vampire saga). Another thing this new film has that the sparkly vampire saga doesn’t, is both female and male interest. Twilight opened with $69.6 million in 2008, The Hunger Games is projected to go a lot higher, some even consider $150 million a realistic number. Personally, I’ll go lower with $125 million for the weekend. That would make The Hunger Games not only the highest opener of March, but also the biggest ever for a non-sequel. Made for just $78 million and already attracting a lot more attention than The Twilight Saga, The Hunger Games could very well become the new Harry Potter instead of just Twilight, and I will stand by this statement.

Former leader 21 Jump Street should come in 2nd with a $24 million or so for a $74 million 10 day total. A sequel is already being pursued and I can’t wait for it to come out. Hopefully Phil Lord and Chris Millers will return as directors.

In 3rd place The Lorax should get $13 million, bringing the animated flick to a total of $177 million. It’s now way behind Despicable Me as far as Illumination Entertainment films go, but it should still reach $200 million before all is said and done.

John Carter is headed for another disappointing weekend, this time in 4th with most likely just $7 million. That should bring the $250 million sci-fi epic to a $64 million total after 17 days.

Rounding out the top 5 should either be Project X or Act of Valor, each with $2 million or so.

Next week we finally get more than just one new wide release, namely two. There’s Mirror Mirror, an unappealing adaptation of Snow White, and Wrath of the Titans, sequel of the 2010 remake, Clash of the Titans.

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21 Jump Street, the only new wide release of the weekend, is yet another TV adaptation. With rave reviews and great tracking numbers for the past few weeks, there’s no doubt this is the film that will own the weekend at the box office. But just how big can 21 Jump Street be?
I think pretty damn big. Most are predicting a $30 to 35 million opening weekend but, as you’ve come to probably expect from me, I’ll go bigger because who doesn’t like big… box office numbers that is. $40 million sounds about right, I mean why not, 2012 has been a great year so far and 21 Jump Street has all the makings of a hit. Great trailers, great reviews (surprisingly, 87% on Rotten Tomatoes right now) talented people behind (Phil Lord and Chris Miller of Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs fame) and two recognizable and popular leads (Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill). Last time we’ve had a buddy comedy TV adaptation (as far as I can recall) was in 2004 with Starsky and Hutch, the great yet often overlooked Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson flick, that opened with $28.1 million.

2nd place is a given for The Lorax with something like $23 million. That should put the orange hero at over $158 million in just 17 days.

John Carter will have to settle for 3rd place with hopefully about $17 million. I kind of wish it could be more but I’m also trying to be realistic here. While John Carter has presented some good weekdays so far, thus showing staying power, the numbers are still not high enough. With an estimated $2 million or so yesterday (numbers not in yet), John Carter will probably go up 150% on Friday to $5 million. Then $7 million on Saturday and again $5 million on Sunday should bring the film to the number shown above. There’s an off chance the film goes up a bit more on Saturday, maybe $8 million, then I could see $19 million for the weekend. But trust me, that’s really a stretch. Hell, it might even fall short of my initial prediction.

With nothing else in the way, Project X has its sight on 4th place with probably $6 million. Rounding out the top 5, I can see Act of Valor doing $4 million.

Next week The Hunger Games aims to become what people like to call “the next Twilight“. The main difference here is that The Hunger Games actually looks like a good movie and from what I’ve heard the books ain’t bad either. Either way expect big things from the Lionsgate adaptation.

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Disney’s long time coming epic is finally opening in theaters today in the wake of The Lorax‘s incredible success, so competition is definitely there. Either way one thing is certain, come Sunday night, either The Lorax or John Carter will finish first.

Directed by Andrew Stanton of Pixar fame (he was behind two of my favorites, Wall-E and Finding Nemo), John Carter is probably the most expensive Disney live-action undertaking outside of their extremely popular Pirates series. Now that puts a lot of pressure in all the wrong places for this one, I mean you don’t see a $250 million movie every day. Also changing the name from John Carter of Mars (name of the famous book on which it is based) to John Carter probably didn’t do the film any favors.

Another disservice to the movie was its abysmal marketing campaign, making it look like Avatar in the desert or a poor man’s Star Wars when actually John Carter of Mars has inspired both of those. Between a shirtless Taylor Kitsch and the desert setting, John Carter also gave a strong Prince of Persia vibe, another badly marketed Disney adventure based on a popular property. Ultimately John Carter is very much a wildcard this weekend but I don’t see this going over The Lorax. Right now I will say 2nd place and $32 million, flat-out bombing unfortunately. Hopefully on Monday when the actual numbers come in I shall be proven wrong.

After a $70.2 million opening last week The Lorax is set to repeat in first place with about $40 million. That would mean over $122 million in 10 days for the little orange hero, which is $4 million ahead of Despicable Me‘s $118 million in 10 days.

Silent House, an interesting looking R-rated horror, is the 2nd new wide release of the weekend and it should end up 3rd or so with $10 to 12 million.

Project X and Act of Valor go after 4th and 5th place with $10 and 8 million respectively while the 3rd and last new wide release of the weekend, A Thousand Words (whopping 0% so far on Rotten Tomatoes after 22 counted reviews) starring Eddie Murphy, is not looking good at all. Opening in 1890 theaters, this long delayed comedy won’t gross more than $5 million for 6th place or lower.

Next week the only new wide release is 21 Jump Street, taking the old 80′s TV series and bringing it to the big screen. Bonus points for the supposed Johnny Deep uncredited cameo.

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Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax is unleashed into North American theaters this weekend and it should end up dominating the box office without any problems. Opening today is also Project X, the 3rd found footage flick we’ve had so far this year, aiming for a distant 2nd place.

The Lorax is the latest animated flick from now famous Illumination Entertainment (Despicable Me, Hop, both hits). Coming in 3728 theaters (widest we’ve had this year), Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax should provide the highest opening weekend we’ve had 2012 so far. The last Dr. Seuss animated flick in theaters was Horton Hears a Who! around 4 years ago also in March and that film opened with $45 million and went on to gross $154.5 million. Today The Lorax has 3D to boost its box office and I’m going with a $55 million take for the weekend.

The other new release of the week, Project X, is an R-rated comedy from Warner Bros. shot in the found footage style, one that has proved highly successful so far in 2012 with the likes of The Devil Inside opening with $33.7 million in January ($53.2 million total so far) and Chronicles in February sporting a smaller opening ($22 million) but a higher total ($58.6 million). Project X looks to me like an $18 million opener, more than enough for 2nd place and actually that would put the film in 7th as far as found footage debuts go.

Act of Valor has shown decent box office legs over the weekdays so it should finish the weekend around $13 million for over $44 million after 10 day. Since it only cost about $12 million to make (between those Super Bawl Ads, Relativity Media must have spent at least twice that just for marketing) it should end up in the green.

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island will take a hit from The Lorax (stealing families away) so it should drop more than the norm. Probably $7 million for $86 million by Sunday night.

5th place is a bit tricky with Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds looking like the obvious contender ($6 million) but I can’t ignore The Artist expanding to 1756 theaters. The 5 Oscars won last Sunday are bound to have at least somewhat of an effect on its box office numbers (particularly the Best Picture one) and while $5 million seems more likely, $6 million is not out of the question. Either way it should be at least 6th.

Next week John Carter is either gonna hit or miss, Silent House probably takes place mostly in a house that is silent, and A Thousand Words is a long dormant Eddie Murphy comedy finally released into theaters by Paramount.

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We’ve had some amazing results so far this February and the last weekend of the month promises not to disappoint. R-rated military flick Act of Valor is the movie to beat while Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds represents the wildcard that could change the order of things by Sunday night. There’s also Wanderlust, a new R-rated Judd Apatow comedy, and thriller Gone, both starting their box office runs today with more modest expectations.

Relativity Media, distributors of Act of Valor, went all out with the marketing campaign for this flick, going as far as having no less than four trailers around and during this year’s Super Bowl. Considering just how expensive a TV spot is during that sporting event, I’d say Relativity is throwing all its cards on the table. Opening in 3039 theaters over the weekend, Act of Valor, a film featuring active duty US Navy SEALS, might not have clicked with critics (26% on Rotten Tomatoes right now) but I think it will with its target audience, men. I’m going high with this one, $25 million for the lead.

Over the past 7 years, producer, director, writer and actor Tyler Perry has delivered quite a noticeable amount of successful movies, all bearing his name in the title. Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds is the latest such offering and considering the guy has an average opening of $25.5 million, I’d say it’s safe to say this will at the very least finish 2nd. Since this is not a Madea film (those are the biggest) I’m going to say $22 million over the weekend.

Unless Wanderlust pulls a fast one on us, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island will easily finish 3rd. It’s been doing fantastic over the weekdays so I think it should pull $14-15 million this weekend for a damn impressive $77-78 million after 17 days.

For Safe House $13 million sounds about right and that will push the film to almost $100 million after 17 days.

New release Wanderlust, starring Paul Rudd, Jeniffer Aniston, Malin Akerman, Alan Alda and Justin Theroux, opens in just 2001 theaters, one of the lowest counts in recent memory for producer Judd Apatow. But I still think it can gross about $12 million for 5th place.

The Vow should be 6th with $11 million so about $103 million by the end of the weekend, making it the first movie of 2012 to reach that milestone.

The 4th and final newcomer of the weekend, Gone, a PG-13 thriller starring Amanda Seyfried, should come a bit softer. Now the actress averages $16.9 million on her openings but this time she is on her own. I think Gone won’t go higher than $9 million for 7th place. Meanwhile Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance will most likely crash and burn with $8 million and only 8th place. Bet you the movie is out of the top 10 by next weekend.

Anyway, next weekend we have a new month, March, and two wide releases, animation Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax and the Warner Bros. R-rated comedy Project X.

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If you’re an American you probably know that on Monday it’s President’s Day, which means a 4-day weekend for the box office. So what is Hollywood offering for this special occasion? Well there’s the return of the flaming skull rider played by Nic Cage, the romantic spy McG flick This Means War, and the Hayao Miyazaki animation The Secret World of Arrietty.

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could be a hit or miss but I think it should have what it takes to at least take the top spot this weekend. The original Ghost Rider opened five years ago on President’s Day weekend and went on to gross $52 million over the 4-day weekend. Inflated 3D prices or not, Spirit of Vengeance has no chance to match that. But even with half the attendance of Ghost Rider, the sequel should still hover around $30 million for the 4-day weekend.

Safe House might be 2nd with $27 million for what should be an 11-day total of over $81 million. It will put the movie just $2 million below American Gangster‘s $83 million at the same point in its run, that being the highest grossing Denzel Washington picture to date. I think Safe House has a good chance to finish above the $130.1 million of American Gangster.

Former leader The Vow is headed for $25 million in 3rd place and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island might show the best box office legs of the top 10 in 4th place with $21 million for $54 million after 11 days. That’s about $9 million ahead of Journey to the Center of the Earth, a movie that finished with $101.7 million.

I can see This Means War rounding out the top 5 with $19 million. I was going to predict this a bit higher but lately the film lost a lot of steam and with The Vow clearly being the first choice among couples, it’s not looking to good for the romantic-spy comedy.

And now on to by far the most interesting new release of the weekend, The Secret World of Arrietty. Produced and written by animation extraordinaire Hayao Miyazaki, this film already made $126.3 million internationally, of which $110 million came from Japan. Now that might seem like a lot but it’s actually below the norm since the last three Hayao directed animations (Arrietty is not) have all made over $200 million worldwide. Those are Spirited Away, Howl’s Moving Castle and Ponyo. In North America Ponyo opened with $3.5 million from 927 theaters. The Secret World of Arrietty comes in 1522 theaters so I recon it could push $6 or 7 million for the 4-day weekend, probably 9th place.

Next weekend Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston go all hippie in Wanderlust, Tyler Perry does his thing in Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds, Amanda Seyfried looks for her sister in Gone, and real active duty U.S. Navy SEALs headline the action flick Act of Valor.

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We have four wide releases this weekend, two new, one sequel, and a 3D re-release. Date movie The Vow has the best chances to claim the top spot with Star Wars and Safe House fighting for 2nd place. Sequel Journey 2: The Mysterious Island should come in 4th.

Now we might be in for a strong weekend at the box office but at least according to critics The Phantom Menace is all eye candy with no substance, The Vow is shallow, Safe House is uninspired, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is, and I quote: “aggressively unambitious”. But then again, what do they know, right? Chances are there’s something for everyone this weekend.

The Vow is looking to replicate the success of Dead John, a movie released 2 years ago starring the same Channing Tatum and opening with $30.4 million. Then there’s Rachel McAdams and she’s been in quite a few hits. With Valentine’s Day right around the corner, I guess couples will boost this to around $30 million, more than enough for the top spot.

For 2nd place I’m split between Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace and Safe House. For Star Wars we have to keep in mind that there’s still a generation out there that grew up with Cartoon Network’s Clone Wars series, one that never experienced Star Wars in theaters. They should be part of the driving force behind The Phantom Menace. Now Safe House stars Denzel Washington and that’s more than enough for an opening north of $20 million. As an added bonus we get Ryan Reynolds in what should be at the very least a cool action flick. I’m thinking both should gross $22-23 million over the weekend.

Journey to the Center of the Earth opened in 2008 with $21 million and went on to gross $101.7 million, becoming one of the surprise hits of that year. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is the sequel to that flick and while it lacks one Brendan Fraser, it certainly makes up for that with Dwayne Johnson, while Josh Hutcherson acts as the only familiar face returning. Four years ago digital 3D was still a new thing, today it’s everywhere so I can’t see this sequel replicating the success of the original. Maybe $17 million over the weekend, 4th place.

Rounding out the top 5, Chronicle should beat The Woman in Black again with around $11 million for a 10 day total of $38 million. That’s already more than twice the $15 million reported budget.

Next week is Valentine’s Day and Fox brings in the heavy guns with McG’s This Means War, Sony unleash Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, while Disney brings to the states the latest Hayao Miyazaki (Spirited Away) animated flick, The Secret World of Arrietty.

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Found footage superhero flick Chronicle is poised to open on top over the Super Bowl Weekend in North America, but Daniel Radcliffe’s first movie since finishing the Harry Potter series, horror The Woman in Black, could upset that order. Also Drew Barrymore returns to the big screen after almost two years of absence in Big Miracle.

There’s something about the found footage sub-genre that gets people into theaters. Just a month ago we had The Devil Inside open with $33.7 million and that has made $52.8 million so far, now we have another. Fortunately Chronicle is not another horror since I think we’ve had more than enough of those. It’s more Cloverfield than Paranormal Activity, and while the later proved to be more successful, Cloverfield was no slouch either. Chronicle is a superhero origin tale and while the premise will undoubtedly attract people, we have to keep in mind that Sunday is Super Bowl and that should hit the movie’s weekend total pretty hard. I’m going to say $18 million for first place.

My second place pick is another film opening today, The Woman in Black. The novel spawned a very successful stage play which has been running in London since 1989, a year which also saw a TV movie made. Now we have Daniel Radcliffe in the lead for his first real box office test outside the Harry Potter franchise. Can his name alone make this a hit? Unfortunately I have to answer that question with another question. What is a hit? You see, distributor CBS Films paid $3 million to acquire The Woman in Black so I recon anything above a $10 million opening should be fine for them. I’m in a good mood today so I’ll say $15 million for The Woman in Black.

Big Miracle represents the perfect counter-programming for the other two releases mentioned above. It’s a PG family flick about whales. Just three months ago Dolphin Tale, another marine mammal movie, made quite a splash at the box office with a $19.1 million opening. But don’t expect such a debut from Big Miracle for at least two reasons: fewer theaters and no overpriced 3D. What Big Miracle will have going for itself is a bigger Sunday than the rest of the movies above. I’m thinking $12 million for 3rd place.

In 4th place we should find former leader The Grey with $10 million for a total of $35 million after 10 days. Rounding up the top 5 might be Underworld Awakening with $6 million and more than $54 million after 17 days.

Next week Dwayne Johnson replaces Brendan Fraser in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island for another Jules Verne adapted adventure, Ryan Reynolds tries to keep Denzel Washington alive in Safe House, we go back to a galaxy far far away in the 3D re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace, and Channing Tatum has to win the heart of Rachel McAdams again in The Vow.

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After the huge success of Taken three years ago, Liam Neeson became something of a beginning of the year go-to star, sort of. He’s had Unknown open to good numbers last year in February and I’m guessing distributor Open Road Films expects similar results from this year’s The Grey. Also new are Summit Entertainment’s Man on a Ledge and Lionsgate’s One for the Money.

The Grey opens today in 3185 theaters and is the movie to beat. Now if this didn’t have Liam Neeson I’d probably give it $8 million or so but thanks to the 59 year old actor, everything changes. For the past three years, with the exception of The Next Three Days (small role anyway), all Liam Neeson’s live-action wide releases have opened above $20 million and while most expect $14-18 million from The Grey, I’m going a bit higher with $22 million. I know it’s R-rated (Taken and Unknown were both PG-13) but reviews are great (75% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Liam Neeson has become quite a box office draw in the past few years.

In 2nd place we should see former leader Underworld Awakening with $12 million, bringing its total to $44.5 million after 10 days, neck-a-neck with Underworld: Evolution‘s $44.6 million after 10 days.

Newcomer One for the Money will be 3rd. This is an action-comedy starring Katherine Heigl and Jason O’Mara (Terra Nova) based on a best-selling novel by Janet Evanovich. Fans of the book might help this film but that won’t be enough for it to go higher than $11 million. For Katherine Heigl this could be her worst opening flick in 6 years. For reference, her wide openings average $15.4 million according to Box Office Mojo. Also, doesn’t this look a bit too much like The Bounty Hunter?

In 4th place Red Tails could reach $10 million but looking at its weekdays, a lower number makes more sense. That will mean $33 million in 10 days and rather slim chances for the flick to reach $50 million at the end of its run in North America. Very disappointing after such a promising opening.

We finally come around to 5th place and the last new release of the weekend, Man on a Ledge. Sam Worthington, Elizabeth Banks, Jamie Bell and Ed Harris star in this familiar looking thriller. Now Sam Worthington has had success with flicks like Terminator: Salvation, Avatar and Clash of the Titans, but that doesn’t make him a box office draw, not yet anyway. Man on a Ledge just doesn’t look interesting so I’m only gonna give it $8 million.

As you all might know, on Tuesday the Academy Awards nominations were announced and that was certainly good publicity for the flicks getting a best picture nod. Today we’ve got The Descendants (5 nominations), Hugo (11) and The Artist (10) all expanding but the only one with any chance to reach the top 10 is George Clooney’s The Descendants in 1997 theaters.

Next weekend is in February already and we’ve got Universal’s Big Miracle, Fox’s Chronicles and Harry Potter’s The Woman in Black opening.

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