The Bounty Hunter goes after first place this weekend but Alice in Wonderland is here to stay for a 3rd consecutive win. After the amazing hold it managed a week ago I can only expect good things from the last big 3D weekend of Alice (How to Train Your Dragon opens wide in 3D next Friday).

Lets find out what we can expect from the wide releases this weekend, The Bounty Hunter, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Repo Man and also The Ghost Writer going wide after one month in limited release.

The Bounty Hunter opens in 3,074 theaters and is an action-comedy from Sony-Columbia starring Gerard Butler and Jennifer Aniston. PG-13, 106 minutes and an awful 7% rating on RottenTomatoes. Even so I expect around $20 million from it this weekend, both Butler and Aniston are bankable actors and regardless of what critics have to say people will come see them.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid opening in 3077 theaters seems to be a somewhat better received movie by the media with 52% on RottenTomatoes. This is based on a bestselling source material and stars a few actors that I can’t really call bankable in any way. Personally I haven’t even seen a full trailer for this movie but based on the way Fox has been pushing it lately I guess this could open around $14 million.

And then comes Repo Man, a Sci-Fi action movie starring Jude Law and Forest Whitaker that I think won’t hit the mark Universal expected from it. The ratings don’t help either, 21% on RottenTomatoes. From all the new comers this weekend Repo would probably be the only one I’d pay to see (but I won’t) and I think I’m not alone in thinking this (and who knows, some people might actually go), unfortunately this looks to be dead on arrival, $10-$12 million.

The Ghost Writer might crack the top 10 this with the 819 theaters it will have starting Friday.

Here’s a rundown of what the top 5 might look like:

1. Alice in Wonderland (BuenaVista) $42M ($273.2M)
2. The Bounty Hunter (Sony-Columbia) $21M (NEW)
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid (Fox) $13.5M (NEW)
4. Repo Man (Universal) $12M (NEW)
5. Green Zone (Universal) $6.5M ($25.2M)

What are your thoughts on the top 5 this weekend?

Alice in Wonderland set an all-time record for 3D releases and the January-April period last weekend by opening with a staggering $116.1 million in North America, way more then anyone could have expected. For Tim Burton it was his biggest opening ever while for Johnny Deep it was his 2nd biggest (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest opened with $135.6 million in 2006).

This weekend there are 4 movies opening wide, Green Zone, a thriller from Universal starring Matt Damon in 3003 theaters, She’s Out of My League, a romantic comedy from Paramount in 2956 theaters, Remember Me, starring Robert Pattison from Summit Entertainment in 2212 theaters and Our Family Wedding, a comedy starring Forest Whitaker from Fox Searchlight in 1605 theaters. None of them stand any chances of making more money then Alice in Wonderland, fact. Actually none of them look like they could open with more then 20 million, if that, while Alice might be in for a weekend of $50-$55 million and maybe more. That should bring it to a total of around 200 million in North America in just 10 days, easily making it one of the top 15 fastest 10-days grossing movies ever, either above or below Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire with $201 million (top is here).

Green Zone is the movie most likely to finish second with around $20 million. This is another collaboration between director Paul Greengrass of Bourne Supremacy and Bourne Ultimatum fame and Matt Damon, the star of those movies. The Bourne series has been very successful and Universal are planning a forth one in the coming years, but Green Zone isn’t Bourne, it is an R-rated thriller with average reviews (48% on RottenTomatoes).

She’s Out of My League looks as run-of-the-mill as you can get and having Jay Baruchel from Tropic Thunder and Knocked Up is not going to help it to much. Let’s see, Romantic Comedy-ish, check, R rating, check, average reviews (49% on RT) …yeah, this isn’t Knocked Up or even 40 Year Old Virgin. Probably $15 million for 3rd place.

Now how did Remember Me miss the opportunity to open closer to Valentine’s Day? So now this movie is standing only on Robert Pattison’s Twilight shoulders. I’m seeing 13-14 million but this could surprise and maybe even go for 3rd place, if not 4th place is also good.

My Family Wedding is a PG-13 comedy with awful reviews that could find an audience with the Tyler Perry crowd, maybe, maybe not. I still see this around $10 million for 5th place.

1. Alice in Wonderland (BuenaVista) $53M ($198.6M)
2. Green Zone (Universal) $20M (NEW)
3. She’s Out of My League (Paramount) $16M (NEW)
4. Remember Me (Summit) $14M (NEW)
5. My Family Wedding (FoxSearchlight) $10M (NEW)

A Bruce Willis buddy comedy directed by Kevin Smith versus a George Romero horror remake? Yes, this are the new contenders at the box office this weekend. Unfortunately for both of them I expect Shutter Island to take the first place once again, here’s why.

Cop Out is an R-rated buddy comedy opening in a hefty 3150 theaters in North America starring Bruce Willis, Tracy Morgan and Stiffler (his mom is not in this). Kevin Smith (Jersey Girl, Zack and Miri make a Porno) is given here a pretty high profile studio movie but unfortunately (at least based on the RT 20% fresh reviews) this doesn’t seem to be his best work (probably also because he did not write the screenplay, unlike previous projects). This being a comedy might help its cause at the box office but with the bad ratings, bad box office reputation of Kevin Smith and average at best previews, I don’t see a bright future for this one, not even a dim one. $15-$20 million opening weekend and $30-$40 million total.

The Crazies on the other hand looks much better and has a RT of 70% fresh with the consensus being: “Tence, nicely shot, and uncommonly intelligent, The Crazies is the rare horror remake that works”, big words for a horror remake. Unfortunately history has thought us that well reviewed horror movies don’t become box office success stories simply because they were well received (Drag me to Hell). This was directed by Breck Eisner (Sahara) and opens in 2476 theaters  staring Timothy Olyphant and Radha Mitchell. An R-rating is usually a plus for this kind of flicks. While I’d like to see this movie do better, I don’t expect more then $10-$15 million opening weekend and around $30-$35 million at the end of its run.

The top 5 should look something like this:

1. Shutter Island (Paramont) $21M ($73.8M)
2. Cop Out (Warner Bros) $18M (NEW)
3. The Crazies (Overture) $14M (NEW)
4. Avatar (Fox) $11M ($703.9M)
5. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (Fox) $9M ($70.4M)

Unlike a week ago, this weekend we only have one movie opening wide, Shutter Island. A Martin Scorsese film starring Leonardo DiCaprio and based on a best selling novel by author Dennis Lehane is probably enough for most people to want to check it out and more than enough to make it number one at the box office in NA at least for one weekend and maybe even two.

This is the 4th movie that Scorsese has made with DiCaprio and based on their track record ($77.8 million for Gangs of New York in 2002, $102.6 million for The Aviator in 2004 and $132.3 million for The Departed in 2006) it’s safe to say that Shutter Island will at least be a decent hit in the $100-$130 million region. With a reported production budget in the range of $65-$85 million it shouldn’t be to hard to make that back, so I say this will be a good investment for Paramount Pictures, 2991 theaters shows they know that.

On RottenTomatoes Shutter Island stands at a 67% with 91 fresh reviews and 44 rotten ones, good enough for the people that care for that sort of things, so another plus for this picture. The running time is a little long at 138 minutes but then again, The Departed was 150 minutes and it still did really well at the box office, so no harm there.

I think this movie will probably open in the $40-$50 million range, my best guess would be $44 million since it’s an R rated movie after all.

The rest of the pack should all have higher then usual drops because of the inflated Sunday that we had last weekend (Monday was Presidents’ Day in the US so a lot of people were free that day, basically Sunday acted like a second Saturday).

The top 5 should look something like this (and I really hope I’m closer this time then I was last weekend):

1. Shutter Island Paramont $44M (NEW)
2. Valentine’s Day WB $20.5M ($90.7M)
3. Avatar Fox $15.9M ($687.6M)
4. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lighting Thief Fox $15.4M ($58.8M)
5. The Wolfman Universal $12.6$ ($53M)

UPDATE: Nikki Finke has estimated Friday numbers that putt my numbers to shame:

1. Valentine’s Day Friday $16.5M, estimated 4-day weekend $60M
2. Percy Jackson $10.5M, $50M
3. The Wolfman $10.5M, $35M
4. Avatar $4.8M, $24M
5. Dear John $4.5M, $19M

It seems I vastly underestimated the new releases but I also think some of those numbers are a little inflated, we’ll see in less then two days.

In the first corner we have Benicio Del Furry, in the second corner some troubled teenager that can control water and in the third (and final) corner we have some Valentine mash-up with enough actors for 10 movies. One of this three will win the Valentine weekend in NA and I will try to go over each one with all the pros and cons and maybe find out who that will be.

Warning, a long post is coming up, if you just want to see the numbers scroll all the way down.

Valentine’s Day opens in 3665 theaters this weekend and stars Jessica Alba, Kathy Bates, Jessica Biel, Bradley Cooper, Eric Dane, Patrick Dempsey, Hector Elizondo, Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Garner, Topher Grace, Anne Hathaway, Ashton Kutcher, Queen Latifah, Taylor Lautner, Taylor Swift, Shirley MacLaine, Emma Roberts and Julia Roberts. It is also directed by Garry Marshall (Pretty Women, Runaway Bride) and it’s missing Richard Gere. V Day has a mighty awful 15% tomato meter (15 fresh, 88 rotten), a running time of 125 minutes and a PG-13 rating.

So we have a big cast that has someone for everyone of all ages, the perfect release date with the perfect title, a very high theater count (that means the studio is sure it will make money) and a director with a lot of background in the genre, someone that knows what he’s doing. On the downside, based on what critics say it’s not a very good movie but really, the audience that this movie is aimed at doesn’t give a damn about reviews so that won’t hurt the opening weekend one bit. Then there’s the running time, about 15-25 minutes longer then the norm for the genre, but this will only affect a little the number of showings for the day (probably 5 instead of 6 a day).

With all of that said Valentine’s Day is looking the movie to beat this weekend, I predict $36 million for the 3-day weekend, $40 million for the 4-day holiday weekend.

Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief opens in 3356 theaters and stars Logan Lerman, Sean Bean, Pierce Brosnan, Rosario Dawson, Uma Thurman and Steve Coogan. It’s based on the novel by Rick Riordan and is directed by Chris Columbus (first two Harry Potter movies). 49% on RottenTomatoes (37 fresh, 39 rotten) makes it the best reviewed out of the three. 119 minutes running time and a PG rating.

I have not read any of the novels in the Percy Jackson series so this is all a mystery for me, but the fans seem to like it, so that’s a plus. Cast is good, reviews are decent but again, they won’t matter to much for the opening weekend.

I say $27 million for the 3-day weekend and $30 million for the 4-day holiday weekend.

The Wolfman opens in 3222 theaters and stars Benicio Del Toro, Emily Blunt, Anthony Hopkins and Hugo Weaving. Joe Johnston (Jurassic Park 3, Captain America in 2011) is the director and this is a remake of the classic 1941 The Wolf Man. 30% on RottenTomatoes (33/77) is on par with other genre pics so I personally wasn’t expecting a lot more then that. 102 minutes running time and an R rating will help the movie just as much as it will hurt it.

The very troubled production and numerous delays will not help The Wolfman, a movie that was more suited for a Halloween release date then a Valentine’s Day one.

The Wolfman will probably suffer the most and open with about $22 million for the 3-day weekend and $25 million for the 4-day holiday weekend.

Three major motion pictures with very wide releases and somewhat high expectations from their studios, all released during a holiday weekend, a very crowded holiday weekend.

The top 5 should look like this (4-day holiday weekend):

1. Valentine’s Day (WB) $36M ($40M)
2. Percy Jackson (Fox) $27M ($30M)
3. The Wolfman (Uni) $22M ($25M)
4. Avatar (Fox) $18M ($22M)
5. Dear John (Sony) $17M ($20M)

Post in the comments your top 5 and in 2 days we will see who was closer to the real results.

Friday box office estimates are in! Wall-E has shot out of the gates with a cool $23.3 MILLION, while Wanted is close on his heels with $18.7 MILLION…! If they keep this up, I’m going to say that Wall-E will rake in $80+ million this weekend, and Wanted will be in the upper $50 – lower $60 million! GREAT WEEKEND TO BE A MOVIE STUDIO!

Has anyone seen either of this weekend’s debuts, yet?  Sound off below on your opinions of the movies!

Hancock is set for release on July 2, and is set to make an estimated $150 MILLION over the five-day Fourth of July weekend! This will make his EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE $100 MILLION grossing movie!  Something no other actor has been able to accomplish.

Here are some interesting numbers:

MOST $100 MILLION MOVIES IN A CAREER (List includes animated films and excludes cameos)
1. Tom Hanks — 15
2. Tom Cruise — 14
3. Eddie Murphy — 13
4. Will Smith — 12 (including Hancock)
4. Harrison Ford — 12
6. Jim Carrey — 11
6. Robin Williams — 11
8. Mel Gibson — 10
9. Matt Damon — 9
10. Bruce Willis — 8
10. Jack Nicholson — 8

Will’s streak started with Men in Black II, and continued with Bad Boys II, I, Robot, Shark Tale, Hitch, The Pursuit of Happyness, and I Am Legend, and will continue with Hancock, which is estimated to make upwards of $280 million domestically.

Damn! Wish we had Will’s golden touch!

This will put him in front of Hollywood legends Tom Hanks and Tom Cruise for the most consecutive $100 million grossers!  His next movie, Seven Pounds (helmed by Pursuit director, Gabriele Muccino), is set for release in December and could make his ninth!

Friday box office results are in, and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian was able to pull in a cool $19.3 mil! This brings the weekend estimate to about $54-62 million, slightly behind first weekend totals for the first movie and quite a bit under the $85 million prediction for this weekend.

Still, it’s managed to make more than Speed Racer, and only in one day!

Let us know your thoughts about the movie in our comments section…

According to one analyst, upcoming Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull could pull in as much as $162-$172 MILLION over next week’s 5-day Memorial Day weekend opening! WOW.

Considering that there have been some not-so-nice reviews going around lately, this is some good news for Paramount!

But, then again, Speed Racer didn’t have the built in audience that Indiana Jones does. Anyone who suggests that Indy is going to bomb needs to have their head checked (or wipe the white powder off their nose). I mean, you all saw Revenge of the Sith, right? THAT still managed to make $380 mil domestic, so I’ve got faith in Steve & Co.

I’ll definitely be there.  That’s $11 right there!