Cop Out versus The Crazies

A Bruce Willis buddy comedy directed by Kevin Smith versus a George Romero horror remake? Yes, this are the new contenders at the box office this weekend. Unfortunately for both of them I expect Shutter Island to take the first place once again, here’s why.

Cop Out is an R-rated buddy comedy opening in a hefty 3150 theaters in North America starring Bruce Willis, Tracy Morgan and Stiffler (his mom is not in this). Kevin Smith (Jersey Girl, Zack and Miri make a Porno) is given here a pretty high profile studio movie but unfortunately (at least based on the RT 20% fresh reviews) this doesn’t seem to be his best work (probably also because he did not write the screenplay, unlike previous projects). This being a comedy might help its cause at the box office but with the bad ratings, bad box office reputation of Kevin Smith and average at best previews, I don’t see a bright future for this one, not even a dim one. $15-$20 million opening weekend and $30-$40 million total.

The Crazies on the other hand looks much better and has a RT of 70% fresh with the consensus being: “Tence, nicely shot, and uncommonly intelligent, The Crazies is the rare horror remake that works”, big words for a horror remake. Unfortunately history has thought us that well reviewed horror movies don’t become box office success stories simply because they were well received (Drag me to Hell). This was directed by Breck Eisner (Sahara) and opens in 2476 theaters  staring Timothy Olyphant and Radha Mitchell. An R-rating is usually a plus for this kind of flicks. While I’d like to see this movie do better, I don’t expect more then $10-$15 million opening weekend and around $30-$35 million at the end of its run.

The top 5 should look something like this:

1. Shutter Island (Paramont) $21M ($73.8M)
2. Cop Out (Warner Bros) $18M (NEW)
3. The Crazies (Overture) $14M (NEW)
4. Avatar (Fox) $11M ($703.9M)
5. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (Fox) $9M ($70.4M)