Box Office Forecast: Breaking Dawn Part 1 and Happy Feet Two

happy feet 2 Image It’s been more than a year since Bella and what’s his name were last seen on the big screen, but we now have The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 opening this weekend. Also the singing/dancing penguins in the animated flick Happy Feet Two are here to provide entertainment for the little and not so little ones.

Edward, the sparkly vampire that owns a shirt, and Jacob, the overgrown dog that doesn’t own a shirt, probably have a tougher fight ahead of them in the movie than in the box office charts since there is absolutely no way this film won’t make it to the top. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 could run for a single day and it would still finish first.

Twilight opened with $69.6 million back in 2008, but Part 1 will probably make more than that in the first day. The number to beat here is $72.7 million made by The Twilight Saga: New Moon in 2009 on the first day it came out. Normally the 4th part in a series starts to fall but I don’t see that happening with Breaking Dawn Part 1, so I say it opens with $150 million, a new record for the series and the 4th highest ever.

In 2nd place without a doubt we should see the other newcomer of the weekend, Happy Feet Two (written this way because that’s how Warner Bros. are advertising it). Now this is the sequel to the 2006 original with the same name (minus the Two) that went on to gross $198 million after opening with $41.5 million. I actually see a small improvement here, a $42 million weekend for Happy Feet Two. With Arthur Christmas, Hugo, The Muppets, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and We Bought a Zoo aimed at a similar audience, all coming out in the next month, Happy Feet Two is going to need amazing word of mouth to make it as far as Happy Feet did.

Immortals should be 3rd with $15 million or so for a 10 day total of $56 million and well on its way to $80 million and more. 4th place is a tossup between Jack and Jill and Puss in Boots, both aiming for $12 million. Because of Happy Feet Two, Puss in Boots should see a 50% drop instead of the 25% that we had last time.

Next week on Thanksgiving Martin Scorsese tries his luck at a family film with Hugo, Aardman Animations leave stop-motion behind with a second computer generated film called Arthur Christmas and Disney tries to resurrect The Muppets for a new generation.

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