What May might lack in number of releases, only 9 wide, it more than makes up for in titles: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Alien: Covenant, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Baywatch, King Arthur and more.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 has May 5th all to itself, no surprises there since this 15th MCU film might be headed for a $150 million opening weekend. Some are even throwing $160 million out there, and I could very much see Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 hitting that. My prediction is a bit lower, $145 million, which could get Vol. 2 somewhere around $350-400 million domestically. Guardians began its international rollout this weekend with an estimated $101.2 million, a good start but not quite Avengers territory. I think $900 million to $1.1 billion is where Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 might eventually land worldwide. A big gap there, I know, but this is a hard one to predict. Also it has good reviews, not great ones like the first film. We’ll see soon enough.
Three titles drop May 12th, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Lowriders and Snatched. Of those Guy Ritchie’s adventure, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword is the most likely to turn into a box office surprise. It probably won’t because it’s out only a week after Guardians and a week before Alien: Covenant, so it will probably open to $30 million tops, on its way to $70 million in the US and $200-250 million worldwide. Lowriders look good but it’s the sort of movie that might not find a big audience in theaters, $3-4 million start, $8-12 million overall in the US.
And then there’s Snatched, the next comedy from Amy Schumer. Her previous film, Trainwreck, opened with $30.6 million and finished at $110.2 million domestically. Snatched will probably have a similar debut, $30 million, but it has only two weeks before the release of Baywatch (which will hurt its business), so an $80-90 million final total in the US is likely here.
May 19th brings Alien: Covenant, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything. The latter is a drama based on a young-adult novel while The Long Haul is the 4th installment in what was once a promising kids series. Everything, Everything is headed for a $6-8 million start while Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul might get $1 million more. Both will probably finish $20-25 million in the US. The Wimpy Kid films used to be solid performs, but it’s been almost 5 years since the last one, way too long for a kids movie.
Alien: Covenant is Ridley Scott once again going back to the series that put him on the map. The movie looks great, unfortunately the Alien franchise has never been huge at the box office, which means a $50 million start would be very good here. I’m hoping for more but realistically that’s probably the ceiling. Based on word of mouth Covenant could ultimately gross $110 million to $150 million domestically. Now worldwide $350-400 million is possible since Prometheus made $403.4 million without the Alien name.
Baywatch sneaks in a day early, May 25th. By now we all know The Rock is pure box office gold and this could be 21 Jump Street all over again. That R-rated comedy opened with $36.3 million and stopped at $138.4 million in the US and $201.6 million worldwide. This R-rated comedy has a much better release date, which could mean a higher start, $40 million. From there Baywatch will probably go as high as $120 million domestically and $200-250 million worldwide. You smell that? It might be Dwayne Johnson cooking a sequel.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales arrives May 26th. Is this really the end for the extremely successful Pirates franchise? That’s what some of the film’s trailers would have you think. And Disney have been pushing this pretty hard. But is it enough? On Stranger Tides opened to $90.2 million around the same date 6 years ago. And yes, it really has been that long. That one stopped at $241.1 million in the US (a new low for the series) and $1.045 billion worldwide (2nd highest behind Dead Man’s Chest). Dead Men Tell No Tales will continue to play extremely well internationally, but even with a few returning fan-favorite characters I don’t think this new one can match any of the older titles in the US. I’m going to say $60-70 million opening weekend, $170 million in the US and $900 million worldwide.