Besides Wonder Woman and the other three movies I mentioned in the title, this June we can look forward to an additional 10 wide releases, including Pixar’s Cars 3.
With a total of 14 wide releases over just 30 days June is pretty ridiculous, meaning I’ll mainly focus on the bigger titles.
June 2nd brings a ray of light for Warner’s DC Extended Universe with Wonder Woman and Fox’s last DreamWorks Animation title before they forever go to Universal in Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie.
Of course I’m going over Wonder Woman first, which as we speak is currently at 94% on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes after 116 counted reviews. Now this is the almost universal praise Warner needed for its DC Extended Universe. And even with all the great word of mouth going into the weekend, Wonder Woman is still pretty likely to post the lowest opening weekend yet in the DCEU (right now Man of Steel with $116.6 million). Back in January I predicted Wonder Woman would start with $120 million and get to $300 million in the US and over $600 million worldwide. Today I’m sticking with that opening weekend and upgrading the domestic total to $360 million. Worldwide let’s say $700-750 million.
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is a $25-30 million opener with maybe $80-90 million in the US and $250 million worldwide.
June 9th comes with The Mummy, Megan Leavey and It Comes At Night. The Mummy is Universal’s first installment in their recently renamed Dark Universe, a cinematic universe that will combine the Universal Monsters. If this new The Mummy is solid (think Kong: Skull Island) than it could open to $40-50 million and eventually end its box office run with $100-130 million in the US and $400-500 million worldwide. Will that be enough for Universal?
Megan Leavey is the story of a US Marine and her bomb-sniffing dog Rex. With a bigger push I feel like this could be a decent hit, but as it stands I don’t see it making more than $3-4 million opening weekend and a $10-12 million total domestically. It Comes At Night is a horror title that will probably start with $10 million and get to $25-30 million in the US.
June 16th offers up 47 Meters Down, All Eyez on Me, Cars 3 and Rough Night. 47 Meters Down is not this year’s The Shallows, $4 million start, $10 million overall in the US. All Eyez on Me is a biographical drama about Tupac Shakur, which could be decent, so let’s say $15-20 million opening weekend, $40-60 million total in the US. The R-rated comedy Rough Night is sort of a female version of Very Bad Things (1998), and it could very well become a success on the level of last year’s Bad Moms. That one started with $23.8 million and stopped at $113.3 million in the US, Rough Night will probably debut around $20 million and gross $80 million domestically.
Cars 3 looks good but June is rather packed so it might end up underperforming, especially going up against Despicable Me 3 in its 3rd weekend. I’m going with a $55 million opening weekend, $160 million total in the US and $500-600 million worldwide.
Transformers: The Last Knight opens June 21st, which is a Wednesday, meaning this is pretty much guaranteed to score the lowest first weekend yet for the series (currently 2007 Transformers with $70.5 million). For The Last Knight I’m thinking $65 million ($100+ million including Wednesday and Thursday). It probably falls just short of $200 million in the US, maybe $190 million, and takes over $600 million internationally for a worldwide total of about $800-850 million.
Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver drops June 28th, also a Wednesday, so a lower opening weekend, $12 million but a higher multiplier, $40-50 million in the US and over $100 million worldwide.
And lastly on June 30th we have another horror in Amityville: The Awakening, another animation in Despicable Me 3 and another R-rated comedy in The House. I have no idea what’s the deal with that Amityville: The Awakening so I’ll just say $4-5 million start and a final total around $10-12 million in the US. Now The House is a comedy starring Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler and that’s maybe good for $18-20 million opening weekend and $70-90 million overall domestically.
And of course there’s Despicable Me 3, which follows after the huge success of Despicable Me 2 (368.1 million in the US and $970.8 million worldwide) in 2013 and Minions ($336 million and $1.159 billion) in 2015. I expect Despicable Me 3 to drop from Minions in the US, open with $80-90 million and stop at $250-300 million, but more than make up for that internationally with $700+ million. So the animation does have a good shot at $1 billion worldwide.
That’s it for June, in July Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters, War for the Planet of the Apes gets ready to finish the fight, Nolan’s Dunkirk throws us into WWII while Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets is the sequel we never got to The Fifth Element.