Box Office Forecast: The Dark Knight Rises has $28 million midnight, looking to break the opening weekend record

July 20, 2012 by | 2 Comments

darkknightrisesbannerlarge1 590x271 Image The Dark Knight Rises had a monster $28 million midnight opening in North America, that’s higher than the $18.4 million made by The Avengers back in May. With already a $10 million lead on the current record holder, can the caped crusader post a new opening weekend best?

So far the numbers are where they should be, fantastic midnight, 2nd widest opening of all time, great critical reception and a mountain of hype. If there’s one movie capable of setting a new opening record it’s The Dark Knight Rises. You see Batman films have a history of record debuts, first the Tim Burton 1989 flick, then the sequel in 1992, Batman Returns. After that it was Batman Forever, again, breaking the record. Batman and Robin in 1997 was a giant misstep but Warner managed to get over that bump with the help of visionary director Christopher Nolan just 8 years later.

Batman Begins was an excellent reboot that made over $200 million in North America, a fresh new start for the Batman and enough for a great sequel to build on. The Dark Knight came out in 2008 and shattered opening weekend records with an astonishing $158.4 million. That film went on to gross $533.3 million, a new best for superhero movies at the time. Since then Marvel has seen a tremendous spike in popularity, culminating with this year’s The Avengers, the current opening weekend record holder with $207.4 million and also the highest grossing superhero flick of all time with $614.2 million (and still counting).

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Going back to The Dark Knight Rises, there’s definitely potential for a new record here, even without the help of higher-priced 3D tickets. Warner Bros. are expecting $180 to $210 million over the weekend and they might get it. Me personally, I’m going with $195 million, a monster opening that could push Batman close to if not past The Avenger‘s total gross.

In 2nd place we’ll have Ice Age 4, $25 million, not a huge drop and over $93 million in 10 days. The Amazing Spider-Man is headed for 3rd place, at least a 50% drop, $16 million for what could be a new total of $232 million. Spidey has $50 million more in the tank, maybe.

Ted should obviously come in 4th, around $11 million while rounding out the top 5 will be Brave, $6 million.

Next week Fox brings a bit of counter-programing for Batman, R-rated comedy The Watch. Then there’s also Step Up Revolution from Summit Entertainment, also counter-programing, so expect to see The Dark Knight Rises at #1 again.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/john.bines.9 John Bines

    I can’t believe how disappointed I was with this film. The plot was sloppy and felt like it was all over the place as if it was trying to merge seven different movies with little resolution (what was with all the confusing flashbacks). – the dialogue was laborious and predictable (I found myself actually saying lines out before they were said). The characters motivations were unbelievable (referring to the love story revolving around three characters). Bane was a bore and felt more robotic than motivated. Nolan needs to let some characters leave his head space and stop using the same actors. If felt like I was watching inception but this version had a man in a cape. I know this was a story about Bruce’s journey but It needed more batman. I love Batman and the first two adaptations Nolan put out were nothing short of genius (with strong help from Mr Ledgers portrayal of the Joker) but this last movie felt so rushed as if they finished it at 12am July 19th for a 12am showing the next day.

    • Alex

      I appreciate your courage and honesty here, even respect your opinion, but clench your checks Legolas, a storm of rage is about to rain down on you.