We’ve had some amazing results so far this February and the last weekend of the month promises not to disappoint. R-rated military flick Act of Valor is the movie to beat while Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds represents the wildcard that could change the order of things by Sunday night. There’s also Wanderlust, a new R-rated Judd Apatow comedy, and thriller Gone, both starting their box office runs today with more modest expectations.
Relativity Media, distributors of Act of Valor, went all out with the marketing campaign for this flick, going as far as having no less than four trailers around and during this year’s Super Bowl. Considering just how expensive a TV spot is during that sporting event, I’d say Relativity is throwing all its cards on the table. Opening in 3039 theaters over the weekend, Act of Valor, a film featuring active duty US Navy SEALS, might not have clicked with critics (26% on Rotten Tomatoes right now) but I think it will with its target audience, men. I’m going high with this one, $25 million for the lead.
Over the past 7 years, producer, director, writer and actor Tyler Perry has delivered quite a noticeable amount of successful movies, all bearing his name in the title. Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds is the latest such offering and considering the guy has an average opening of $25.5 million, I’d say it’s safe to say this will at the very least finish 2nd. Since this is not a Madea film (those are the biggest) I’m going to say $22 million over the weekend.
Unless Wanderlust pulls a fast one on us, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island will easily finish 3rd. It’s been doing fantastic over the weekdays so I think it should pull $14-15 million this weekend for a damn impressive $77-78 million after 17 days.
For Safe House $13 million sounds about right and that will push the film to almost $100 million after 17 days.
New release Wanderlust, starring Paul Rudd, Jeniffer Aniston, Malin Akerman, Alan Alda and Justin Theroux, opens in just 2001 theaters, one of the lowest counts in recent memory for producer Judd Apatow. But I still think it can gross about $12 million for 5th place.
The Vow should be 6th with $11 million so about $103 million by the end of the weekend, making it the first movie of 2012 to reach that milestone.
The 4th and final newcomer of the weekend, Gone, a PG-13 thriller starring Amanda Seyfried, should come a bit softer. Now the actress averages $16.9 million on her openings but this time she is on her own. I think Gone won’t go higher than $9 million for 7th place. Meanwhile Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance will most likely crash and burn with $8 million and only 8th place. Bet you the movie is out of the top 10 by next weekend.
Anyway, next weekend we have a new month, March, and two wide releases, animation Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax and the Warner Bros. R-rated comedy Project X.