Update: Seems I was wrong and Ted might be looking at around $20 million on Friday and probably $50+ million for the weekend. We most definitely have a winner here and it will be Ted.
We’ve got a busy weekend ahead with no less than 4 new wide releases. Magic Mike gives Channing Tatum another chance to shine in what has been so far his best year yet. Then there’s Seth MacFarlane’s Ted starring Mark Wahlberg, Mila Kunis and a talking teddy bear. Also Tyler Perry returns once again as Madea, while Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci (Transformers, Star Trek) make something without explosions.
Three films have a realistic chance to finish first this weekend, Magic Mike, Ted and holdover Brave which has shown outstanding staying power during its weekdays. Pixar’s Brave will be looking at about $35 to $40 million which would be enough under normal circumstances. Unfortunately for Disney a movie where Channing Tatum stars as a stripper does not fall under those normal circumstances. Yes, I’m talking about Magic Mike or simply “The Channing Tatum stripper movie”, its more popular name. This R-rated comedy, and I’m cheating here (obviously), has already made $2 million at midnight (Thursday-Friday) which is more than Men in Black 3 or Snow White and the Huntsman can claim. After The Vow and then 21 Jump Street, both hits, Channing Tatum might be looking at his 3rd consecutive $100+ million grosser. Will Smith he is not but at this point one can’t argue that the dude can attract an audience. I might be conservative here saying Magic Mike will open with $40+ million cause in all honesty it could go a lot higher. So yeah, Magic Mike is my pick for the #1 spot (but either Ted or Brave could also win).
With its $97 million after 7 days Brave is already ahead of every other Pixar film at the same point in their run, except Toy Story 3. With my estimated $35+ million that it could gross over the weekend, Brave should have more than $133 million after 10 days, ahead of the 4th of July week.
Seth MacFarlane, the brilliant mind behind the popular Fox animated TV show Family Guy, makes his big screen debut directing Ted and voicing the titular character, a teddy bear. But Ted is no ordinary kids toy, actually this foul-mouthed, pot-smoking and beer-drinking beer should be kept as far away as possible from any kid. That being said, for us adults (or at least those imagining themselves adults) he is frigging funny. Ted will be looking at over $30 million, maybe going as high as $40 million.
In 4th place I’m expecting another new entry, Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection. Not long ago Madea could open to as much as $40 million, today she’ll be lucky with half that. The last film that had Tyler Perry in a fat-suit playing Madea opened with $25 million back in 2011, this one should be similar, maybe a tiny bit less, $23 million.
Madagascar 3 should round out the top 5 with $12 million but we are not done with the new releases. No sir, there is still People Like Us, directed by Alex Kurtzman who had help writing the screenplay from long-time collaborator Robert Orci. For those that don’t know, this guys helped pen films like The Island, Mission: Impossible 3, Transformers 1 and 2, Star Trek and Cowboys & Aliens. So basically all big budget action flicks, making People Like Us a drastic change for them since it’s a family drama. Unfortunately this is getting average reviews and previews have done a bad job presenting any reason why people should drop money to see People Like Us. I think $10 million is about as high as it could go.
Next week The Amazing Spider-Man swings back onto the big screen in a new origin tale, Katy Perry: Part of Me drops by in 3D and Oliver Stone brings the thriller Savages.