Without any sort of competition, Taken 2 had an easy time at the box office last weekend. This time we have five new wide releases and at least two of them plan to challenge Taken 2 for the #1 spot.
Taken 2 has had surprisingly steady weekdays and based on its Wednesday gross (which was $2.7 million) I can deduce that the film will collect about $22 million this weekend. Now that’s more than I would have given it a week ago, so if my prediction pans out, Taken 2 will have over $86 million after 10 days and should remain the #1 flick for another weekend.
Argo is the latest feature from reinvented director-writer-actor Ben Affleck. This time he is “only” directing and starring in this R-rated thriller about the ex-filtration of 6 American citizens during the Iranian revolution. Last time Ben Affleck was both in front and behind the camera was in 2010′s The Town. That R-rated crime drama opened with $23.8 million and finished at $92.1 million. I don’t expect quite the same number from Argo but it should come close. $20-21 million seems within reach here for 2nd place.
Sinister is an R-rated horror coming from the house of sparkly vampires (Summit Entertainment) and starring Ethan Hawke. Based on previews and critical reception this looks like a solid genre offering but is that enough for Sinister to achieve box office greatness? Well, it should be but unfortunately (and don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of the guy, missed him actually) Ethan Hawke is kind of box office poison so color me extremely surprised if Sinister can open higher than $20 million (which would be a great result either way).
Hotel Transylvania has been very solid so far and I doubt that will change this weekend, so $17 million for #4.
Rounding out the top 5 might be the comedy Here Comes the Boom. Based on Kevin James’ track record as a lead in this kind of films, this should at the very least open with $15-16 million.
Probably my most anticipated film opening this weekend (based on the cast alone), Seven Psychopaths is the 4th new wide release of the week. Unfortunately in this cruel world that most of the time can’t appreciate real talent, a cast featuring the likes of Colin Farrell, Christopher Walken, Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson (I mean come on) can’t guarantee a film’s success. So I’m left with two predictions for Seven Psychopaths, $7 million and $27 million. One is what I expect, the other what I want. It’s on you to guess which is which.
Atlas Shrugged: Part 2 is the last new wide release of this very busy weekend. While the concept here is cool, I don’t think this will break the top 10. Since Atlas Shrugged: Part 1 (2011) finished its run with just $4.6 million (although only in limited release), I seriously doubt the sequel can pull off more than $2-3 million this weekend.
Next week is considerably less packed with just two new films opening wide. One is Alex Cross starring Tyler Perry while the other is Paranormal Activity 4, the latest in a series that I don’t think needs any more introductions.