The 5th installment in the venerable Die Hard series opened yesterday, on Valentine’s Day, opposite Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures. Of the two only Nicholas Sparks adapted Safe Haven has a shot at the top. Debuting today is also the first animation of the year, Escape from Planet Earth, so this 4-day Presidents weekend is shaping up to be rather interesting.
It was the summer of 1988, July, when John McClane first articulated the now famous “yippee-ki-yay ….”, you know the rest. Little did we know that 25 years later, the same John McClane, played by the same Bruce Willis, would still use that phrase to, well, taunt his enemies in what is the 5th entry in the series. So after Die Hard, Die Hard 2: Die Harder(I know), Die Hard: With a Vengeance and Live Free or Die Hard we got A Good Day to Die Hard. Silly names aside, these films have made about $435 million so far in North America, that’s unadjusted for inflation (adjusted is a lot more, $728.7 million to be more exact) so you can see why 20th Century Fox would like to milk this cow some more. So how much can they get from the latest Die Hard film?
According to Deadline A Good Day to Die Hard grabbed around $8.1 million on Valentine’s Day so from there I can, hopefully, come up with a relatively accurate final number for both the 3 and 4-day weekend (including Monday, Presidents Day in North America). So I looked back a little and found out that the last time Valentine’s Day dropped on a Thursday, just before a Presidents weekend, was back in 2008 when Jumper claimed the top spot. That one had an opening day of $6.6 million (on Valentine’s) and went on to gross $27.3 million and $32 million respectively over the long weekend. If A Good Day to Die Hard follows a similar pattern (R-rated vs PG-13 could be a problem) then we can expect $33-34 million over the short weekend and $39-40 million over the longer one. So if those numbers pan out, then A Good Day to Die Hard should win the weekend easily and come out with a 5-day total of around $48 million. That would be very much in line with the $48.3 million Live Free or Die Hard generated over the same period in 2007. Hey, it won’t break any records but compared to what Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone have been doing lately, it’s pretty damn impressive.
If everything goes by the numbers then 2nd place might be in the hands of Safe Haven, yet another Nicholas Sparks adaptation trying to cash in on Valentine’s Day. Yes, it did win Thursday with $8.9 million, but unlike A Good Day to Die hard, expect this one to drop on Friday. So after doing the math, Safe Haven is looking at $25 million for the short weekend and $28 million including Monday for a 5-day total of $42 million.
Former leader Identity Thief will definitely give Safe Haven a run for its money after nabbing $5.3 million on Thursday. That puts the film on track for $23 and $26 million, awfully close I think.
After only $2.5 million on Thursday, Beautiful Creatures can’t hope for more then $10-12 million for maybe 4th place. Escape from Planet Earth might do similar numbers but I won’t be surprised if it ends with more (and I would predict the film much higher if Weinstein Company bothered marketing this thing).
Next week we have supernatural PG-13 thriller Dark Skies and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson flexing his Fast and Furious muscles in Snitch.