21 Jump Street, the only new wide release of the weekend, is yet another TV adaptation. With rave reviews and great tracking numbers for the past few weeks, there’s no doubt this is the film that will own the weekend at the box office. But just how big can 21 Jump Street be?
I think pretty damn big. Most are predicting a $30 to 35 million opening weekend but, as you’ve come to probably expect from me, I’ll go bigger because who doesn’t like big… box office numbers that is. $40 million sounds about right, I mean why not, 2012 has been a great year so far and 21 Jump Street has all the makings of a hit. Great trailers, great reviews (surprisingly, 87% on Rotten Tomatoes right now) talented people behind (Phil Lord and Chris Miller of Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs fame) and two recognizable and popular leads (Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill). Last time we’ve had a buddy comedy TV adaptation (as far as I can recall) was in 2004 with Starsky and Hutch, the great yet often overlooked Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson flick, that opened with $28.1 million.
2nd place is a given for The Lorax with something like $23 million. That should put the orange hero at over $158 million in just 17 days.
John Carter will have to settle for 3rd place with hopefully about $17 million. I kind of wish it could be more but I’m also trying to be realistic here. While John Carter has presented some good weekdays so far, thus showing staying power, the numbers are still not high enough. With an estimated $2 million or so yesterday (numbers not in yet), John Carter will probably go up 150% on Friday to $5 million. Then $7 million on Saturday and again $5 million on Sunday should bring the film to the number shown above. There’s an off chance the film goes up a bit more on Saturday, maybe $8 million, then I could see $19 million for the weekend. But trust me, that’s really a stretch. Hell, it might even fall short of my initial prediction.
With nothing else in the way, Project X has its sight on 4th place with probably $6 million. Rounding out the top 5, I can see Act of Valor doing $4 million.
Next week The Hunger Games aims to become what people like to call “the next Twilight“. The main difference here is that The Hunger Games actually looks like a good movie and from what I’ve heard the books ain’t bad either. Either way expect big things from the Lionsgate adaptation.