Much much more, seriously the first half of 2017 is looking incredible and box office numbers will probably reflect that. So without further ado let’s take a look at the next five months of 2017.
Everything of note in February comes out on the same date, and that’s the 10th. We’re talking about Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter 2 and The LEGO Batman Movie. Right now tracking suggests the latter will win that weekend, with Fifty Shades Darker in 2nd and John Wick in 3rd. So I guess that means we’re starting with The LEGO Batman Movie.
Back in 2014 (February 7th) The LEGO Movie opened to $69 million and went on to gross $257.8 million domestically and $469.2 million worldwide. The LEGO Batman Movie doubles as both another LEGO installment as well as a new Batman thing. Reactions to trailers have been very positive and if reviews are just as glowing (The LEGO Movie has 96% on Rotten Tomatoes), then this will absolutely open around $60-70 million in the US. From there, depending on legs, the final US cume could range between $200 million and $250 million, maybe even more. Worldwide we might be looking at $400-500 million.
Almost two years ago Fifty Shades of Grey began its theatrical run with $85.2 million (at the time a new record for February), concluding said run at $166.2 million domestically and $571 million worldwide. Fifty Shades Darker will open significantly lower, $40-45 million, which means it’s probably headed for $90-100 million overall in the US. I’m sure it will continue to play very well internationally, think $300 million, so with a worldwide total of around $400 million the series is in no danger.
As much as I absolutely loved John Wick, I know John Wick: Chapter 2 doesn’t really hang with most of the movies we’ll be looking at today, at least not at the box office. Realistically Chapter 2 will open around $20 million (up from the first film’s $14.4 million) and finish at $50-60 million in the US and $150+ million worldwide ($43 million and $86 million for the original). At the same time I’m hoping for a $30 million start, $90-100 million domestically and $250 million worldwide, which would guarantee a lot more John Wick over the next few years.
In March we’re talking about Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers and Ghost in the Shell. Logan looks amazing and thanks to the trailers released so far by Fox, this being the last Wolverine film as well as the first R-rated one, I think we might be in for a big surprise at the box office.
Previously The Wolverine (2013) opened to $53.1 million (finished with $132.6 million in the US, $414.8 million worldwide) while the one we don’t talk about, Origins, debuted with $85.1 million in 2009 ($179.9 million in the US, $373.1 million worldwide). I feel like Logan could ride the overwhelmingly positive word of mouth from its trailers to an $80-90 million opening weekend this March. Throw in there great reviews and we might even start talking about $100 million. With that in mind Logan‘s final US cume could go from $200 million all the way to $300 million. In that case worldwide would be $600-800 million, so Logan could potentially become the top grossing X-Men film (currently Deadpool with $783.1 million). It’s a slime chance, but it is there.
Kong: Skull Island hits March 10th and I’m seriously scratching my head with this one. The previous King Kong movie opened with $50.1 million back in 2005 and eventually made its way to $218.8 million in the US and $550.5 million worldwide. That was with Peter Jackson hot on the heels of The Lord of the Rings and a December release. I don’t think Kong: Skull Island can match that film’s box office, but I’m also hoping it does well enough for Warner to still go forward with that Godzilla versus Kong (2020) they have planned. The next trailer might change my mind, but right now I’m saying $40-45 million opening weekend for Kong: Skull Island, $100-140 million total in the US and $400-450 million worldwide.
Beauty and the Beast (March 17th) will be nothing short of an absolute juggernaut at the box office. We’re talking $120-145 million start, $350-450 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. The 1991 animation made $219 million in the US, which adjusted for ticket price inflation would be $392.4 million in 2017. Yes, that’s a lot of money, also a number the new one could potentially surpass. Of course there are many elements that need to fall into place for that to happen (like the film has to actually be good, really good), but since it’s Disney we’re talking about here it’s safe to assume most everything will go well and they’ll have another huge box office hit. I mean it’s a live-action Beauty and the Beast, which is still one of the studio’s most beloved animations, so there’s no scenario in which this isn’t a box office hit.
Okay, this post is becoming a lot longer than I anticipated. I’ll try to keep the next few shorter, starting with Power Rangers (March 24th). A lot of people seem to look forward to Power Rangers and so far it’s on track for a $40 million opening weekend which could lead to $100-110 million domestically and $300+ million worldwide. Ghost in the Shell (March 31st) might play out like a sequel to Lucy ($43.9 million start, $126.7 million in the US, $463.4 million worldwide) or it might be a complete box office bust. I’m currently leaning in the middle, and only because I really liked that first trailer, so $30 million debut, $80 million in the US and $300 million worldwide. Not great, not that bad either.
The Fate of the Furious (April 14th) comes after Furious 7, a film that made $353 million in the US ($147.2 million start) and an incredible $1.516 billion worldwide. Furious 7 is the 6th highest grossing film of all time around the world. Obviously The Fate of the Furious is not going to match that, instead a more realistic outcome would be something along the lines of $1.15 billion, the box office average of the last two films (Fast & Furious 6 made $788.7 million worldwide). Of that $270-300 million could come from the US ($130 million opening).
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 5th) should match and maybe even surpass the first film’s $333.2 million domestic total ($94.3 million opening weekend), and especially its $773.3 million worldwide cume. I feel like a $150 million start for Vol. 2 is not quite crazy talk. From there the sky is the limit, that is as long as the movie doesn’t suck. For example a good Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 will make at least $300 million in the US and $800 million worldwide, but a great one could fly north of $400 million and $1 billion.
Alien: Covenant (May 19th) follows the relatively successful Prometheus, $51 million start, 126.5 million in the US and $403.4 million worldwide. Prometheus is also by far the top grossing Alien film, so that’s the one to beat for Covenant. Fox are probably expecting similar numbers from Alien: Covenant, and it could definitely do it. I’m predicting a $50 million opening weekend, $130 million in the US and $400 million worldwide.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (May 26th) might be the first in the series to not make it past $200 million domestically. I’m going with a $65 million opening weekend, enough to get the 5th film just shy of $200 million, which is okay since I’m sure it will more than make up for that internationally with at least $600 million. So the worldwide box office total for Dead Men Tell No Tales could end up around $800 million or so. That’s still good and probably enough to guarantee a top 10 spot at the end of 2017.
Wonder Woman (June 2nd) has to be good, it just has to, right? And if it is (it will be) then I could picture a $120 million opening weekend for Wonder Woman, higher than Man of Steel‘s $116.6 million but lower than Suicide Squad‘s $133.7 million. That would be enough to get the film to $300 million domestically and $600+ million worldwide. Now you might think I’m underestimating this film’s international appeal, but I don’t. Even if it’s really good, $700 million is probably the ceiling for Wonder Woman.
Cars 3 (June 16th) is more Cars and kids really like this series. The first two movies have a combined worldwide total of over $1 billion at the box office and with Cars 3 they’ll probably reach $1.6 billion. Cars and Cars 2 opened with $60.1 million and $66.1 million respectively, but the second one finished a lot lower in the US, $191.5 million versus $244.1 million for the first one. Worldwide it was the other way around, $462.2 million versus $562.1 million in favor of Cars 2. Now Cars 3 will probably play similarly to the 2nd one, so $65 million start, $200 million domestically and $600 million worldwide.
Transformers: The Last Knight (June 23rd) is the 5th film in the Michael Bay Transformers cinematic universe. Like them or not these movies make a lot of money and I don’t think that’s changing anytime soon. For The Last Knight I’m predicting an $80 million debut in the US (2nd lowest in the series), $200 million (new low) and $900 million worldwide (3rd). Of course China will probably be responsible for at least a third of that money (Age of Extinction made $320 million over there).
Despicable Me 3 (June 30th) is more Despicable Me and kids, their parents, grandparents, older siblings, their pets, well they all seem to really like this series. Joking aside, between the first two films and spin-off Minions, we’re talking about $2.67 billion worldwide at the box office. That’s an average of $891 million per movie, which is nuts. Despicable Me 2 made $368.1 million in the US in 2014, after opening with $83.5 million (which was more like $143.1 million over 5 days as the film opened on a Wednesday). Worldwide it did $970.8 million. Despicable Me 3‘s first weekend will probably be similar to that of Minions ($115.7 million), maybe slightly higher, say $120 million. Overall it should end up with $340-380 million domestically and $1.1 billion worldwide.
That about covers February to June. I know I missed more than a few potential hits, something that is sadly unavoidable when dealing with so many movies. Check back tomorrow for part 2, the second half of 2017. Right now 12 movies are present in that post, including Spider-Man: Homecoming, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League or Star Wars: The Last Jedi.