Alice set to dominate the box office again

Alice in Wonderland set an all-time record for 3D releases and the January-April period last weekend by opening with a staggering $116.1 million in North America, way more then anyone could have expected. For Tim Burton it was his biggest opening ever while for Johnny Deep it was his 2nd biggest (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest opened with $135.6 million in 2006).

This weekend there are 4 movies opening wide, Green Zone, a thriller from Universal starring Matt Damon in 3003 theaters, She’s Out of My League, a romantic comedy from Paramount in 2956 theaters, Remember Me, starring Robert Pattison from Summit Entertainment in 2212 theaters and Our Family Wedding, a comedy starring Forest Whitaker from Fox Searchlight in 1605 theaters. None of them stand any chances of making more money then Alice in Wonderland, fact. Actually none of them look like they could open with more then 20 million, if that, while Alice might be in for a weekend of $50-$55 million and maybe more. That should bring it to a total of around 200 million in North America in just 10 days, easily making it one of the top 15 fastest 10-days grossing movies ever, either above or below Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire with $201 million (top is here).

Green Zone is the movie most likely to finish second with around $20 million. This is another collaboration between director Paul Greengrass of Bourne Supremacy and Bourne Ultimatum fame and Matt Damon, the star of those movies. The Bourne series has been very successful and Universal are planning a forth one in the coming years, but Green Zone isn’t Bourne, it is an R-rated thriller with average reviews (48% on RottenTomatoes).

She’s Out of My League looks as run-of-the-mill as you can get and having Jay Baruchel from Tropic Thunder and Knocked Up is not going to help it to much. Let’s see, Romantic Comedy-ish, check, R rating, check, average reviews (49% on RT) …yeah, this isn’t Knocked Up or even 40 Year Old Virgin. Probably $15 million for 3rd place.

Now how did Remember Me miss the opportunity to open closer to Valentine’s Day? So now this movie is standing only on Robert Pattison’s Twilight shoulders. I’m seeing 13-14 million but this could surprise and maybe even go for 3rd place, if not 4th place is also good.

My Family Wedding is a PG-13 comedy with awful reviews that could find an audience with the Tyler Perry crowd, maybe, maybe not. I still see this around $10 million for 5th place.